690
FXUS63 KDVN 200308
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
908 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD COMING
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AM, GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. FURTHER HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST REMAINS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HAVE ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 30. SEEING A FEW SITES HIT CRITERIA
MAINLY NORTH, BUT NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH YET. DO EXPECT THOUGH
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITERIA TO BE MET OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AM,
ALONG/N OF HWY 30 AS THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
PUSHES IN. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS ANTICIPATED, AND THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET WITH MANY SITES ALREADY BELOW ZERO
FROM QC METRO ON NORTH/WEST WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE SITES ON THE
IOWA SIDE ALONG HWY 20 ALREADY APPROACHING -10F. AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE'RE SEEING THE WINDS BACK TO WSW WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (WAA). THIS WEAK WAA WILL HAVE
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SERVICE AREA
OVERNIGHT, MAKING LOWS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING AND LIKELY NOT AS
COLD AS THE NORTHERN SERVICE AREA... ALTHOUGH STILL PLENTY COLD
FROM ZERO TO NEAR 4 BELOW ZERO. IF TEMPS WERE TO GET COLDER THAN
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD -15 TO -20 WIND CHILLS,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE AN EXPANSION OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
ASIDE FROM THE COLD, I HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SEEING MORE OF A SIGNAL
IN CAM REFLECTIVITY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SOME SHALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY WITH OUR NEXT TROUGH AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR ON MONDAY. IN FACT WE'RE ALREADY NOTING THIS IN OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
VORT MAX.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL US BRINGING THE COLDEST BOUT OF ARCTIC AIR THUS FAR.
ALTHOUGH, PRIOR TO THAT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND
SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH LIGHTER WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL BE A STARK DIFFERENCE TO THE WINDS
FELT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FEEL
LESS FRIGID TONIGHT. OVERALL, WE WILL STILL HAVE BITTER COLD AIR
PRESENT, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND INTO THE LOW NEGATIVES.
ALTHOUGH, WITH LIGHTER WIND, WIND CHILLS WILL LARGELY BE BETWEEN -10
AND -20. THUS, STILL FRIGID, BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS THE PRIOR NIGHT.
THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
THE COLDER END OF THAT RANGE, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TOMORROW, ANOTHER FRIGID DAY IS FORECAST, RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO IN
THE NORTH TO 15 IN OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER ON PAPER FOR SOME, THE WINDS WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT,
KEEPING WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AND TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR THE
COLD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
GOING INTO MIDWEEK, WITH YET AGAIN ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE IMPACTS OF THAT BEING FELT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST PART OF THE
STRETCH. FORTUNATELY, THE WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS.
ALTHOUGH, ANY BREEZE WILL GIVE THE AIR MUCH MORE BITE, ESPECIALLY
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE LOW NEGATIVES TO NEGATIVE
TEENS. THUS, WE ARE STILL FORECASTING WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
-25 TO -30 OR COLDER IN OUR NORTH, AND -10 TO -20 IN OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS. WITH THIS CURRENT FORECAST, HEADLINES FOR THE COLD WILL BE
LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HEADING TOWARDS MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES
QUITE ACTIVE, WITH SEVERAL WAVES PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THAT IS THE CASE, OUR MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BUT WITH SUCH LOW MOISTURE, CONFIDENCE IN
THIS REMAINS LOW. ALTHOUGH, THE NBM IS STARTING TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL, INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THUS, WILL HOLD ONTO
THOSE POPS AND MESSAGE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. IN EITHER CASE,
THE NICE ASPECT OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
LLVL SOUTHERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN WARM ADVECTION. THUS,
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOME EVEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE 20S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 30S IN OUR SOUTH FROM
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. ENJOY THE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEPT VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW FLURRIES WITH SHALLOW SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A TROUGH AND REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE IN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SCATTERED
MVFR BASES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL FOR
LATER TAF ISSUANCES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT, BUT THEN RETURN TO GUSTINESS
AT 15-25+ KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-065-066.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-
002-007.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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