325
FXUS63 KDVN 220937
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS; ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
THE ARCTIC COLD WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
FINALLY WANED, THANKS TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA AROUND
MID-DAY YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
AS HIGHS WARM TO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA, COLDEST OVER OUR
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL FEEL WINTRY ACROSS THE AREA AS WE
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CULPRIT
WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, DRIVEN
BY A 120+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
RETURNS ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY AS SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE HAS BEGUN AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR
LINGERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HELPING TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS DRY AIR SHOULD ERODE
EVENTUALLY. CHANCES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST IN THE 40 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE MORE
MINOR, THANKS TO OVERALL WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING. THE WPC
SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES MOST OF THE GEFS, EPS, AND GEPS MEMBERS HAVE
TOTAL SNOW BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT A BIT
BETTER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
HREF ENSEMBLE SHOWS SNOWFALL RATES OF LESS THAN 0.25" PER HOUR, SO
THIS SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT, AND INDEED, THE PROBABILISTIC
WSSI HAS VERY LOW (<20%) POTENTIAL OF "MINOR" IMPACTS, MEANING VERY
LOW POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY, ROAD SALT SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE AT MELTING SNOW,
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED
ROADS, SO LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR, WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE
MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -13 TO -16 DEGREES C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS ABOVE ZERO FOR TONIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT,
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST WED JAN 22 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS LOOKING RATHER QUIET, WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TO THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THINGS WARM UP QUITE A BIT.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE, WITH HIGHS WARMING ONLY TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, WITH ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, LEADING TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED, WIND
CHILLS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO BETWEEN 0 TO -12 DEGREES F.
THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR LAST BITTERLY COLD NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FURTHER AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HELPS
USHER IN EVEN WARMER AIR. THE WARM UP SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY,
WHEN WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. A
MINOR COOL-DOWN ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NBM INDICATES HIGHS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY TUESDAY, WHICH IS NEARLY 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR JANUARY 28TH!
WE'RE NOT SEEING ANY NOTABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT
EITHER IN THE EXTENDED, WITH ONLY A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY, WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME FLURRIES, BUT THE
SIGNAL FOR THIS IS VERY WEAK DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, SO WE SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
A VFR NIGHT WITH SFC WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AT 15 TO 25+ KTS IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A CLIPPER
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT OR SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN NORTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING, BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT VFR. THEN THE LIGHT
SNOW AND LOWERING CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE AFTRERNOON, WITH BOUTS OF MVFR SNOW REDUCED VSBYS AND
CIGS IMPACTING MOST SITES EXCEPT MAYBE AT BRL THROUGH 00Z THU.
THEN EXPECT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z THU.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...12
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