856
FXUS63 KDVN 160612
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-
80 ON MONDAY.
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK, LEADING TO PERIODS OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL TREND TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
PROFILES INTERMIXED WITH SOME BOUTS OF DEEPER CRYSTALLIZATION FOR
FLURRIES AT TIMES. BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING. MORE OF A FACTOR WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING SOME
RENEWED DRIFTING ON RURAL/OPEN AREA ROADS. ANOTHER VORT MAX, SEEN
NOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS EASTERN MT, WILL LOOK TO DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONGER WAVE TROF BASE ACRS THE MID CONUS AND
PROPAGATE RIGHT ACRS THE DVN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WAVE MAY INDUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS COMBINE WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONE COMPLEX HEADED FOR NORTHERN
APPALACHIA. JUST LIGHT SNOW/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATER ACTIVITY, BUT THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH
TO MEASURE ACCURATELY. POST-SYSTEM COLD AIR ADVECTION(CAA) TO MAKE
12 HOUR(00Z-12Z SUN) LOW TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST, TO NEAR 20 IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE A DAY WHERE THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A PRESSURE
GRADIENT BATTLE ZONE, AS A STRONG 1030+ MB ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS JUTS
DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND MO RVR VALLEY, WHILE THE DEEP CYCLONE
OCCLUDES ACRS NY AND PA. A RAW, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAY WITH
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, TO ALMOST 10 BELOW
DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRIFTING
SNOW ACRS RURAL/OPEN AREAS. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE MORNING FOR THE
SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD, THEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST FOR LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SNOW AT TIMES. STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL ADDITIONAL WIND
BLOWN ACCUMULATION. SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE EDGING CLOSER,
THERE SHOULD BE SOME WIND DECREASE/DECOUPLE. AMBIENT TEMPS WILL
CRASH ACRS MUCH OF THE DEEPER SNOWPACK AREAS HAVING LOW TEMPS
RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT, EVEN 5-10 MPH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR POTENTIAL COLD ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 30.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
MONDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO BE EDGING ACRS THE
REGION OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MO RVR VALLEY, WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF
AND LEAD CLIPPER TYPE WAVES DIG DOWN ACRS THE NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO UTILIZE
TIGHTENING LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY TO PRODUCE AN ELEVATED F-
GEN SNOW EVENT SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN
CWA DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE BUT HIGH SLR'S
SUGGEST A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA ALONG BEST
LIFT/SATURATION COMBO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND MAYBE NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE MO COUNTIES. SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR
A FRIGID MONDAY NORTH OF I-80, AND LOW TEENS TO THE SOUTH. DEPENDING
ON CLOUD COVER, WITH ENSEMBLE STILL SUGGESTED THREE SIGMA -20 TO
-22C H85 MB TEMPS ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA, SOME LOW TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY APPROACH 15 BELOW WITH EVEN LIGHT
WINDS STILL MAKING FOR NEAR 30 BELOW WIND CHILLS, THUS EXTREME COLD
WARNING POTENTAIL STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR TUE MORNING IN THOSE
AREAS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE ARCTIC REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE/BLENDS STILL ARE ADVERTISING A COLD CORE
CLOSED UPPER LOW/VORTEX SETTLING ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
ROLLING DOWN ACRS IA INTO IL THIS PERIOD. ENERGIZED ZONAL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CONUS MAY ALLOW THE SOUTHERN CWA TO
GET OCCASIONALLY SKIMMED BY ISENTROPIC LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY EVENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED. THIS WHILE THE AREA REMAINS BATHED IN RE-
ENFORCING ARCTIC AIR AND ROUNDS OF -20C OR COLDER H85 MB TEMP POOLS.
WITH LONG RANGE PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
ONGOING SNOW COVER, IT APPEARS THAT THESE DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY "NANOOK OF THE NORTH" SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS, AND
WELL BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPS. THUS MORE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL COLD
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. ALSO WITH THE
COLD CORE UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD, WE MAY HAVE SCTRD SNOW SHOWER
BY WED AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE
TO OPEN UP AND FILL ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES WILL LOOK TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST MAKING
FOR SFC IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOCALLY, EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
25-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...UTTECH
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