014
FXUS63 KDVN 161746
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION FOR ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 1"
OR MORE ARE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KEOKUK, IOWA (30-50%).
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY:
A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY, DEEPENING
TO ~985MB. THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A 1040MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, WE
CAN EXPECT COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL CREATE DAYTIME WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO! OCCASIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH WRAP AROUND LOW CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW. A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SNOW CAN PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS,
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE INCOMING ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH FORECAST
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. STEADY NW WINDS
OF 10-20 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO
ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-80, AND A TOUCH WARMER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES APPROXIMATELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY AM INTO THE AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW (50-70%). THE
SNOW WILL BE VERY FLUFFY WITH SLRS NEAR ~20:1 IF NOT HIGHER.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR FAIRLY LIGHT QPF UNDER A TENTH WITH
AROUND 1" OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. LOOKING AT WPC'S PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR 1" OR MORE OF SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF KEOKUK, IOWA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS COULD EXTEND
FURTHER TO THE NORTH BY A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES, WITH MOST
MODELS HOLDING THE LIGHT QPF TO THE SOUTH OF I-80 ON THE LATEST
RUNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING...THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD IOWA/ILLINOIS. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO, SO EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF
5 - 15 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON COLD HEADLINES FOR THIS PERIOD SO WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. PARTS
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD. EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA IS 30 BELOW FOR
MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AND 25 BELOW FOR THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
TUESDAY PM AND WEDNESDAY...THE ARCTIC REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE/BLENDS STILL ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW/VORTEX SETTLING ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THEN ROLLING DOWN ACRS IA INTO IL THIS PERIOD. ENERGIZED
ZONAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CONUS MAY ALLOW
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO GET OCCASIONALLY SKIMMED BY ISENTROPIC
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRY EVENTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED. THIS
WHILE THE AREA REMAINS BATHED IN RE- ENFORCING ARCTIC AIR AND
ROUNDS OF -20C OR COLDER H85 MB TEMP POOLS. WITH LONG RANGE
PROJECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ONGOING SNOW
COVER, IT APPEARS THAT THESE DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
"NANOOK OF THE NORTH" SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS, AND
WELL BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPS. THUS MORE ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL COLD
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. ALSO WITH
THE39COLD CORE UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD, AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY TRY TO WORK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW MAKES
IT, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH MORE MODELS NOW SHOWING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE UPPER WAVE
TO OPEN UP AND FILL ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES WILL LOOK TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST MAKING
FOR SFC IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
GENERALLY SCTRD TO BKN PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCU MOVING
ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH EMBEDDED FLURRIES BUT
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH MVFR OR VFR LEVELS. SOME BLOWING
SNOW REDUCED VSBYS OF 5-6SM AS WELL, BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY
SFC WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS DOING MORE DRIFTING ACRS WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED RUNWAYS. GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
LOOSING THEIR GUSTINESS BY LATE EVENING. A CENTRAL PLAINS
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS ACRS THE BRL SITE MONDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. ALSO AN
UNCERTAINTY IF THAT SITE WILL GET CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW MOVING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS MONDAY MORNING. REST OF THE AREA MAINLY A VFR
MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU PATCHES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...12/UTTECH
AVIATION...12
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