661
FXUS63 KDVN 162021
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AND FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
COLDEST NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 1"
OR MORE ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KEOSAUQUA IA TO
CARTHAGE IL (40-60%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TONIGHT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WERE
SHOWING A CLOSED COLD CORE UPPER LOW CENTER ACRS MANITOBA, WITH
BROAD TROFFINESS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. OTHER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PIECES WERE NOTED FROM ACRS THE PACIFIC NW, TO THE EAST CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ON THE SFC, ARCTIC RIDGE AXIS WAS EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE
PLAINS AND MO RVR VALLEY. LEESIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THIS FEATURE
SQUEEZING INTO THE DEEP CYCLONE ACRS NY MAKING FOR A COLD WIND
MACHINE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STIFF WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE
DRIFTING/ BLOWING SNOW WORDING INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND VERY COLD TONIGHT. COMBO OF VERY COLD
AMBIENT TEMPS AND THE WINDS SUPPORT THE ONGOING COLD WX ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH
LATEST CALCULATIONS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN TIER OR SO OF ADVISORY
COUNTIES MAY BE MARGINAL FOR TRUE CRITERIA BEING MET. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE SAME AREAS IN THE COLD HEADLINES. LOW CHANCES(LESS THAN
20%) FOR LIGHT SNOW MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BEFORE
12Z MONDAY.
MONDAY...THE STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE(NORTHERN PLAINS GROWING TO 1045+ MB
BY MONDAY EVENING) WILL BE ON TRACK TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS DAY, WHILE THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF/LEAD CLIPPER TYPE WAVE
STREAKS ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS RVR VALLEY.
THIS UPPER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO PROPAGATE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MO, UTILIZING TIGHTENING LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY TO PRODUCE
AN ELEVATED F-GEN SNOW EVENT ACRS THESE AREAS. THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FLANKING BAND WILL SKIRT ACRS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF
THE DVN CWA DURING THE DAY INTO EVENING. LIMITED MOISTURE BUT HIGH
SLR'S SUGGEST AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS BY MONDAY EVENING, AND 1-2 INCHES ACRS PORTIONS OF OUR MO
COUNTIES OF CONCERN WERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER LIFT/SATURATION
COMBO ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR A FRIGID MONDAY NORTH OF I-80, AND LOW TEENS
TO THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER OFF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM, WITH
TEMP ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A THREE SIGMA -20 TO -22C H85 MB
COLD POOL ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA, SOME AMBIENT LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CWA MAY APPROACH 15 TO 20 BELOW.
EVEN IF WINDS DECREASE SOME, THEY WILL STILL MAKE FOR NEAR 30 BELOW
WIND CHILLS, THUS EXTREME COLD WARNING POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
POSSIBLE FOR TUE MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE NOW MORE
BULLISH IN HANDLING A VERY STRONG 1045+ MB ARCTIC HIGH EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SO
MUCH SO THAT IT MAY DEFLECT THE BULK OF CONTINUING F-GEN SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN STREAM BAROCLINICITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA, OR
JUST BARELY CLIP IT FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. AFTER A FRIGID START TO
THE DAY, ONGOING -15 TO -20C H85 MB COLD POOL ACRS SNOW COVER WILL
TRANSLATE TO SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS NOT THAT MUCH ABOVE ZERO TUE. AWAY
FROM THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD COVER ACRS THE SOUTH, TUE NIGHT LOWS IN
THE NORTH WILL RANGE FROM -5 TO -12F BELOW ZERO AND THE PROBABLE
NEED OF ANOTHER COLD HEADLINE. CLOSED OFF POLAR UPPER LOW STILL
LOOKS TO ROLL DOWN ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST GRT
LKS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY DRAW MOISTURE AND THUS LIGHT
SNOW OFF ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TROF ALMOST TROWAL-LIKE UP ACRS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TUE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WED. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS JUST LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS LOOK IN LINE FOR WED.
SOME CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FILLS SOME
AND MIGRATES EASTWARD MAY MAKE FOR ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WED NIGHT
INTO THU MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL MEAN ANOTHER
VERY COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY, BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF
WHAT OCCURS EARLIER IN THE WEEK LOOKING AT SOME THICKNESS
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST. AS THAT RIDGE FINALLY EDGES ITS WAY
FURTHER EAST, BACKSIDE LLVL RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH A POTENTIAL
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER TRACK(AND THUS A POSSIBLE CLIPPER WITH
IT'S LEESIDE SOUTHERLY DRAW) MAY BRING ABOUT A NICE WARM-UP BY THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LOOKS DRY THIS PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR MAYBE LATE SATURDAY IF ANY CLIPPER TIMED FOR THAT SLOT HAS
ENOUGH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
GENERALLY SCTRD TO BKN PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCU MOVING
ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SOME WITH EMBEDDED FLURRIES BUT
VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH MVFR OR VFR LEVELS. SOME BLOWING
SNOW REDUCED VSBYS OF 5-6SM AS WELL, BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY
SFC WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS DOING MORE DRIFTING ACRS WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED RUNWAYS. GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SFC WINDS
LOOSING THEIR GUSTINESS BY LATE EVENING. A CENTRAL PLAINS
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SPILL CLOUDS ACRS THE BRL SITE MONDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. ALSO AN
UNCERTAINTY IF THAT SITE WILL GET CLIPPED BY LIGHT SNOW MOVING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT IF IT DOES IT WILL BE OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS MONDAY MORNING. REST OF THE AREA MAINLY A VFR
MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU PATCHES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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