078
FXUS63 KDVN 171138
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND FOR
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 1" OR MORE ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM NORTHERN SCOTLAND COUNTY TO GREGORY LANDING (30-60%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. WIND CHILLS AS
COLD AS 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE, FORECAST WIND CHILLS
REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, SO IT'S POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
OR THIS PERIOD COULD BE COVERED WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE TEENS TO THE SOUTH.
SNOW POTENTIAL: A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND PERIOD OF
WAA ALOFT WILL GLANCE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
(MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34) FROM THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT,
LEADING TO OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY FLUFFY
WITH SLRS NEAR ~20:1 IF NOT HIGHER. WPC/NBM QPF HAS CONTINUED
TO SHOW ONLY A TRACE TO AROUND 0.05", LEADING TO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 1" NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS, MO TO
KEOKUK, IA. WPC'S PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH
EITHER, SHOWING ABOUT A 30-60% CHANCE FOR 1" OR MORE OF SNOW TO
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KAHOKA, MO. LIGHTER AMOUNTS COULD EXTEND
FURTHER TO THE NORTH BY A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES, AGAIN MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. WITH ANY SLIGHT INCREASE IN QPF, TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS COULD EASILY REACH 2"+ ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA; SOMETHING WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ARCTIC HIGH EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
IOWA/ILLINOIS. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO, SO EVEN LIGHT WINDS OF 5 - 15 MPH WILL CREATE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. HAVE CONVERTED THE EXTREME COLD
WATCH TO A WARNING NORTH AND WEST OF THE QUAD CITIES (WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER). ALL OTHER COUNTIES WENT TO A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND
EAST THE -30 F OR COLDER WIND CHILLS WILL REACH. THEREFORE IT'S
POSSIBLE THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN LATER UPDATES.
THE COLD HEADLINES RUN FROM 9 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 12 PM TUESDAY,
AFTER WHICH TIME FORECAST WIND CHILLS IMPROVE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AWAY FROM THE OVERRUNNING CLOUD
COVER ACRS THE SOUTH, TUE NIGHT LOWS IN THE NORTH WILL RANGE
FROM 0 TO -11F BELOW ZERO AND THE PROBABLE NEED OF ANOTHER COLD
HEADLINE. CLOSED OFF POLAR UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO ROLL DOWN
ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST GRT LKS THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY DRAW MOISTURE AND THUS LIGHT SNOW OFF
ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TROF ALMOST TROWAL-LIKE UP ACRS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TUE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WED. RIGHT NOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. SOME CLEAR OUT AND SFC
WIND DECREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FILLS SOME AND MIGRATES
EASTWARD MAY MAKE FOR ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST CYCLONE WILL MEAN ANOTHER
VERY COLD DAY FOR THURSDAY, BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF
WHAT OCCURS EARLIER IN THE WEEK LOOKING AT SOME THICKNESS
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST. AS THAT RIDGE FINALLY EDGES ITS WAY
FURTHER EAST, BACKSIDE LLVL RETURN FLOW COMBINED WITH A POTENTIAL
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER TRACK (AND THUS A POSSIBLE CLIPPER
WITH IT'S LEESIDE SOUTHERLY DRAW) MAY BRING ABOUT A NICE WARM-
UP BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LOOKS DRY THIS PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MAYBE LATE SATURDAY IF ANY CLIPPER TIMED FOR THAT
SLOT HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT BRL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING; CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH BRL LIKELY TO BE RIGHT ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS AND
PREVAILING VFR ARE EXPECTED AT DBQ/CID/MLI THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR IAZ067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...12/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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