116
FXUS63 KDVN 172348
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AM EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
WEEK.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA BEGINNING 9 PM THIS EVENING, IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CHANCES (20-40%) OF
LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TONIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH IN TOTAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME AREAS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW HAS
BEEN REPORTED. SYNOPTICALLY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS, WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOITERING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO CANADA. A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE ALONG WITH 850-700 MB LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION/FGEN FORCING
HAS LED TO THE SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. 17.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
SNOW, WITH DRIER SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34,
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SCOTLAND AND
CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MO. SOUNDINGS FOR KIRKSVILLE, MO SHOWS A
DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (ALL THE WAY TO AROUND 14
KFT PER THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS!), SO THE SNOW SHOULD BE QUITE
FLUFFY, WITH SLRS AROUND 21:1 POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH TOTAL. AROUND MEMPHIS, MO,
WPC ENSEMBLE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH ARE AROUND 60
TO 70%.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AM REMAINS ON AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE, PROMPTING AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -
20 TO -23 ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (COLDEST TO THE NORTH).
THE ECMWF EFI FOR TUESDAY AM TEMPERATURES RANGES IN THE -0.7 TO -0.9
RANGE, WHICH INDICATES A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN -20 TO -35 DEGREES
F, COLDEST FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. LIMIT YOUR TIME
OUTDOORS IF YOU CAN, FOLKS!
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD REMAINS ON THE PERIOD
OF BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING AS COLD
OF CONDITIONS LIKE WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT MORE LIKELY, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
(AT LEAST) ARE NEEDED, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CHANCES (20-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
EVENING AS OUR SOUTHERN REGION IS GRAZED BY A POTENT WINTER STORM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH AREAS TO OUR SOUTH. AGAIN,
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MEAGER FOR US, SO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. WE COULD SEE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, TOO, AS A REINFORCING VORT
MAX DIVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT AGAIN, LITTLE
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE. IN FACT, WPC ENSEMBLE EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1" OR MORE) SHOWS ONLY
AROUND 50 TO 70% FOR THE 24-HR PERIOD FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS
LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, RELIEF FROM THE ARCTIC COLD
IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FROM A DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE
MEANS RETURN TO THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTH,
WITH HIGHS LIKELY WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. SO, GOOD
NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RELIEF FROM THIS BITTER COLD!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR IAZ067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...GIBBS
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