306
FXUS63 KDVN 181129
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
529 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- ARCTIC COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DRY BUT BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING THE NEXT PULSE
OF ENERGY FROM THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
ARRIVES. THIS IMPULSE WILL GENERATE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA, IA TO GALESBURG, IL LINE. AT THE VERY WORST A
LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF A MEMPHIS, MO TO
MACOMB, IL LINE.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER. HOWEVER, WHEN THE WIND IS FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION, WIND
CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THUS A NEW
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE THERMAL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
FORCING PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SNEEZE FLURRIES GIVEN A SATURATED LAYER ALOFT SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA,
IA TO STERLING, IL LINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL COLD HEADLINES
ARCTIC COLD WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (>80%) THAT MORE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
INITIAL CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN
PLUMMET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF A WARMING TREND
AFTER A COLD THURSDAY NIGHT, A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THEN SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON THE THERMAL PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL SKIRT THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 21Z/18. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OCCURRING AT KBRL BUT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z
TAFS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/19.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>053-063>065-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ054-066>068-078-087>089-098-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ067-068-
076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>017-024>026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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