518
FXUS63 KDVN 191125
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
525 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ARCTIC COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. A NEW COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE MAY OR MAY NOT
RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. IF FLURRIES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THEY WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE. FOR SOME AREAS THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR A COLD HEADLINE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BE DAY 4 OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SO THE LONGEVITY OF THE COLD MUST ALSO BE CONSIDERED.
THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THE NORTH
AND WEST AREAS OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK WILL REMAIN THE COLDEST ON
THURSDAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY (>95%) OF A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH. HOWEVER, STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH THAT HAVE A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
IF A SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT. INDIVIDUALLY THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES; WITH ONE OR
TWO OCCURRING DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS AND UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z/20.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>053-063>065-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>053-063-064-076-077-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ054-
066>068-078-087>089-098-099.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ054-065>068-078-088-089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>017-024>026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-
010.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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