573
FXUS63 KDVN 191737
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ARCTIC COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. A NEW COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE MAY OR MAY NOT
RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. IF FLURRIES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THEY WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 15 TO 25
BELOW ZERO RANGE. FOR SOME AREAS THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR A COLD HEADLINE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BE DAY 4 OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SO THE LONGEVITY OF THE COLD MUST ALSO BE CONSIDERED.
THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THE NORTH
AND WEST AREAS OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK WILL REMAIN THE COLDEST ON
THURSDAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY (>95%) OF A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH. HOWEVER, STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH THAT HAVE A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
IF A SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT. INDIVIDUALLY THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES; WITH ONE OR
TWO OCCURRING DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EASTERN IOWA TAF SITES REWMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 9 KFT THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FLURRIES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>053-063>065-076-077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>053-063-064-076-077-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ054-065>068-078-088-089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
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