870
FXUS63 KDVN 192057
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
257 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS BRINGING
FLURRIES TO THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FLURRIES
ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT BOTH MOUNT PLEASANT AND FORT
MADISON. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FROM IOWA INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM 3 DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO AT INDEPENDENCE TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AT MACOMB. THERE
ARE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AT 5 TO 15 MPH RESULTING IN
CURRENT WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -2*F TO - 16*F ACROSS THE AREA.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
TODAYS SHORTWAVE SLOWLY PASSES TO THE EAST. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS FROM 3 TO 12 UTC. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SOME LOW LEVEL SATURATION TONIGHT AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS THIS AREA. SKIES TO THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLEAR TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. EXPECTING
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 MPH OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT WIND CHILLS
OF -15 TO -25 TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THESE REASONS,
HAVE LEFT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE AREA WIDE. THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUD POTENTIAL OVER NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AND BE IN THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ASSESSMENT...A NEAR CERTAINTY
(>95%) OF A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH. HOWEVER, STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH THAT HAVE A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
IF A SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED LAYER ALOFT IS PRESENT. INDIVIDUALLY THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES; WITH ONE OR
TWO OCCURRING DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. CURRENTLY, MODELS HAVE THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
ALL RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EASTERN IOWA TAF SITES REWMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 9 KFT THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES TO THE AREA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FLURRIES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>053-063-064-076-077-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ054-065>068-078-088-089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
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