187
FXUS63 KDVN 201124
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
524 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ADVERTISED WARMUP STARTS FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IN
EARNEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
- POTENTIAL FOR TWO SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK; THE SECOND OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE MARGINAL BUT THE LONGEVITY OF THE COLD CONDITIONS
HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS ONLY BEING 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...NEAR CERTAINTY (>95%) OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARM UP COMMENCES ON FRIDAY BUT REALLY BEGINS IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER,
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE A DEFINITE CHILL.
THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME WHILE OTHER POINT TO A MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF WHICH TIMING IS CORRECT, THE
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE
RISK OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (>60%) CONFIDENCE ON A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AROUND MID-WEEK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST AROUND
MID-WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING TIMING, THERE IS
LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED AS THE
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION; ALBEIT AT 40 PERCENT. THERMAL
PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/21 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ040>042-051>053-063-064-076-077-087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ054-
065>068-078-088-089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ001-
002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-
010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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