113
FXUS63 KDVN 201737
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ADVERTISED WARMUP STARTS FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE IN
EARNEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE
NORMAL.
- POTENTIAL FOR TWO SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK; THE SECOND OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE MARGINAL BUT THE LONGEVITY OF THE COLD CONDITIONS
HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION.
DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS ONLY BEING 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...NEAR CERTAINTY (>95%) OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED WARM UP COMMENCES ON FRIDAY BUT REALLY BEGINS IN
EARNEST OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER,
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE A DEFINITE CHILL.
THERE IS A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME WHILE OTHER POINT TO A MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS OF WHICH TIMING IS CORRECT, THE
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS THE
RISK OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (>60%) CONFIDENCE ON A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AROUND MID-WEEK.
THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST AROUND
MID-WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING TIMING, THERE IS
LOOSE AGREEMENT THAT WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED AS THE
BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION; ALBEIT AT 40 PERCENT. THERMAL
PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS
IS SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN
IOWA LATE THIS MORNING. KCID, KMLI, AND KBRL ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK SLOWLY THINS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
AT KDBQ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20 UTC
AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ON SATELLITE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
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