888
FXUS63 KDVN 202055
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP STARTS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR TWO SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK; THE SECOND OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM
13*F AT INDEPENDENCE AND CEDAR RAPIDS TO 18*F AT KEOKUK,
MONTICELLO, AND MOLINE.
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM +2*F
AT PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO -8*F AT INDEPENDENCE WITH COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WEST OF A FAIRFIELD TO DUBUQUE LINE. THIS MAY STILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OVER NIGHT OF -10 TO -15 WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC ON SATURDAY.
HAVE WARMED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AREA WIDE AS RECENT FORECAST HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER. DID
NOT WARM THEM MORE GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO OUR WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS WEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO MANCHESTER LINE TO THE UPPER 20S
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF DIFFERENT STORM SYSTEM. IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WARMING TREND PICKS UP AS THE MAIN STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY TO WIDESPREAD MID 40S TO
MID 50S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACTIVE WITH SEVERE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST STORM SYSTEMS PASSING
BY OR NEAR THE AREA WILL BE DRY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL RAIN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL AS
JACKSON AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES IN IOWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS
IS SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN
IOWA LATE THIS MORNING. KCID, KMLI, AND KBRL ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK SLOWLY THINS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR
AT KDBQ. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20 UTC
AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN ON SATELLITE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...COUSINS
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