569
FXUS63 KDVN 202313
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP STARTS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR TWO SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK; THE SECOND OF THE TWO
SYSTEMS AROUND MID-WEEK HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF GENERATING
PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
I HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, MUCH CLOSER TO
THE 50 PERCENTILE NBM, WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR TONIGHT. SOME COLD SPOTS IN
THE WEST MAY REACH -10 TO -13 ON THIS UPDATE, WITH LOCATIONS IN
THE EAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. WIND CHILLS COME OUT A BIT COLDER,
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE, AND IF THAT VERIFIES, AN SPS IS LIKELY
GOING TO BE USED TO MESSAGE THE COLD WCS. I ALSO UPDATED THE HWO
WITH THIS INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH PRESSSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGED FROM
13*F AT INDEPENDENCE AND CEDAR RAPIDS TO 18*F AT KEOKUK,
MONTICELLO, AND MOLINE.
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM +2*F
AT PRINCETON ILLINOIS TO -8*F AT INDEPENDENCE WITH COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WEST OF A FAIRFIELD TO DUBUQUE LINE. THIS MAY STILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OVER NIGHT OF -10 TO -15 WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC ON SATURDAY.
HAVE WARMED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AREA WIDE AS RECENT FORECAST HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER. DID
NOT WARM THEM MORE GIVEN WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS ACROSS THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO OUR WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS WEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO MANCHESTER LINE TO THE UPPER 20S
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY CONTINUES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF DIFFERENT STORM SYSTEM. IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WARMING TREND PICKS UP AS THE MAIN STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AIR MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY TO WIDESPREAD MID 40S TO
MID 50S ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS ACTIVE WITH SEVERE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST STORM SYSTEMS PASSING
BY OR NEAR THE AREA WILL BE DRY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL RAIN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL AS
JACKSON AND DUBUQUE COUNTIES IN IOWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A CLEAR, COLD, AND QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE LOWERING AROUND 00Z TO UNDER 10 KTS NORTHWEST, AND
THEN TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY, WHILE
REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS. ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...ERVIN
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