771
FXUS63 KDVN 270514
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM(SOUTH) TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
ALONG OF SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD.
- BREEZY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR(WV) IMAGERY ACRS
SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL RIDGE-RIDE AND THEN DROP DOWN IN
NORTHWESTERLIES ACRS IA BY THU MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL UTILIZE AN
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 30-35 KT LLJ FEED AND SOME THTA-E
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE MORE SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS EVENING THE INITIAL
LIFT MAY PRODUCE A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT BATTLING DRY AIR
IN PLACE, THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT IN VIRGA FORM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MID LAYER MUCAPES LATE FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER ACRS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA A BIT BEFORE DAWN, BUT
MUCH BETTER LAPSE RATES AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR THUNDER JUST OFF TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DVN CWA WHERE THEY MAY GET AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL. WILL BANK ON CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT BACKING LLVL
FLOW TO KEEP LOW TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 40S, BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S ESPECIALLY IN NW IL.
THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING, BEFORE SAGGING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL PROCESSES FOR A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN CWA MAY GET UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL BY MID THU
MORNING, BEFORE THE PRECIP LULL OCCURS. TEMPS MAY RECOVER INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S IF WE GET A FEW AFTERNOON BREAKS, ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN WARM FRONT OR QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE UNDULATING ACRS
MO. THIS FRONT AND BAROCLINICITY UP TO H85 MB'S WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
A RENEWED 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ THU EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT ZONE FOR THU EVENING/NIGHT SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
BOTH PROJECTED KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS SUPPORTING ELEVATED
CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A CELL CLOSE TO A BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THAT THREAT LOOKS TOO REMAIN
OFF TO THE SOUTH.
MORNING TO MIDDAY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH MAY BE A FACTOR TO WHERE THE
BOUNDARY GETS HELD UP FROM WEST-TO-EAST. THERE IS MORE AND MORE
TRENDS THIS FRONT MAY BE ALONG OR EVEN JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN CWA THU EVENING, AND WE MAY HAVE JUST SECONDARY ELEVATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH AND THEN TRYING TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD TO I-80 AS THE MAIN BOUNDARY TRIES TO RETREAT. IF FLOW NOT
INTERRUPTED TO THE SOUTH BY STL TO CENTRAL IL CONVECTION, WE MAY
ALSO GET A SECONDARY WING OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACRS NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEASTERN IL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL CAMS SUPPORT THIS IDEA. HAIL
OF VARYING SIZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY,
BUT BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGER STONES WILL LOOK TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
I-80. HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA,
AIDED BY A 1 TO 1.3" PWAT FEED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
FRIDAY...AFTER ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THU NIGHT CLEARS, THE REST
OF FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE BREEZY/WINDY RETURN FLOW DAY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED AND SUBSTANTIAL WARM WEDGE/
INVERSION ALOFT FROM H85 TO H8. MODERATE MIXING INTO THE BASE OF IT
MAKES FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH, AND A MIX DOWN OF SFC DPTS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. A MIX TO NEAR H85 MB WOULD BE WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET AND SUPPORTING AT LEAST AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
OR EVEN CLOSE TO CRITICAL. WITH THE STOUT LOOKING EML IN PLACE,
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTION ZONE LOOKING TO LAY OUT ALONG LLVL
BAROCLINICITY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. FRIDAY TEMPS TRICKY AS HATE
TO PROMISE AN 80 AND THEN WE MIX SHALLOWER BECAUSE OF EML CAPPING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLE HIGH BASED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME
COOLING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMP PROFILES, BUT IT STILL WILL BE
MILD IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S AND NOT A BAD DAY WITH THE AREA STILL
IN BETWEEN THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION ZONES SOUTH AND NORTH. LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT, STRONGER CONVECTIVE SPAWNING GROUNDS LOOK TO OCCUR
OUT WEST ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY. PROPAGATING PROCESSES, FRONTAL PUSH
AND LLJ FEED MAY HELP THIS ACTIVITY TO BLEED EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUT CURRENT PROGNOSIS
SUGGEST MCS SUPPORT MECHANISMS TO WANE INTO THE LATE NIGHT AND
HOPEFULLY THE INCOMING ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT ARRIVES. IT MAY STILL
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
WITH CONTINUED COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION ON SUNDAY, THE MAIN
FRONT/LLVL BAROCLINICITY IS STILL FORECAST BY BRUNT OF THE ENSEMBLES
TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST, SHUNTING THE PRIME SEVERE THREAT
FOR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY SOUTH/EAST AS WELL. MAYBE SOME LINGERING
OVERRUNNING MORNING SHOWERS, AND INCREASING NORTHERLY BL FLOW FOR A
MUCH COOLER DAY. SOME DETAIL STILL TO BE WORKED OUT WITH THIS LATER
WEEKEND SCENARIO, BUT THE TRENDS ARE THERE. MORE UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT, BUT MEAN
UPPER TROF BASE STILL SLIDING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. THE IDEA OF
ENOUGH IN-WRAPPING COLD CONVEYOR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
INTERACTING WHATEVER PRECIP SHIELD THAT GETS GENERATED BY THE UPPER
TROF SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS. IS THERE A CHANCE THAT THIS CAA
CHANGES THE RAIN INTO SNOW WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY
MORNING?. NORTH OR SOUTH MAIN SNOW AXIS PLACEMENT ALSO REMAINS A
CHALLENGE, WITH TRENDS OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW POSSIBLE ACRS
SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PASSING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY WEEK. THEN THERE
MAY BE ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROF AND POTENTIAL LARGER SYSTEM AGAIN
PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH PRECIP CHANCE BY LATE
TUE AND NEXT WED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE ABSENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AM
THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS MID-LATE MORNING AT CID/MLI/BRL. THUNDER
PROBABILITIES ARE NOW BELOW 5 PERCENT THIS MORNING AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE BRL TAF. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO IL,
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM LASTING AT LEAST INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH LLWS
POSSIBILITIESTO CONSIDER IN LATER ISSUANCES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 28:
KMLI: 53/1879
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 28:
KBRL: 84/1910
KCID: 81/1968
KDBQ: 78/1910
KMLI: 81/1910
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GROSS
CLIMATE...GROSS
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