506
FXUS63 KDVN 270837
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
337 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
HAZARD.
- VERY WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND WIND
GUSTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARM START TO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING COLDER SUNDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
EARLY MORNING RADAR MOSAICS DEPICT TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING IN THE MIDWEST. THE FIRST AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO
NORTHERN IL ARE HIGH BASED SHOWERS IN A 700MB FGEN LAYER, BUT
ONLY HAS HAD A HANDFUL OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST ARE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA TOWARDS
SOUTHERN IL ON THE NOSE OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ EVIDENT BY 50KT
850MB VWP WINDS ON THE KOAX, MCI, AND KEAX RADARS. STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS NOTED BY SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS AIDED IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AM.
CLOSER TO HOME, 2AM TEMPS WERE QUITE MILD THANKS LARGELY IN
PART TO CLOUD COVER AND WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
TODAY-TONIGHT...INCREASING WAA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
IA THIS MORNING TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 10-11AM WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES (50-70%) AND GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF I-80. QPF AMOUNTS UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY. A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A WARM FRONT REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AFTER
PRECIP EXITS AND DESPITE A WARM START TO THE DAY HAVE GONE A
LITTLE LOWER FOR HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S IN NORTHERN IL TO
THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHEAST MO. TONIGHT, WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH AS ANOTHER STRONG LLJ AND WAA INCREASES SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROGS ALL POINT TO STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. AS A
RESULT, SPC HAS A MARGINAL OR A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS UNDER A HALF INCH ARE FORECAST.
FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN IA/WI. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING IN 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C (NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR
THE DAY PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY) COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE, WITH SOME
HOMETOWNS LIKELY SEEING 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE NEAR HIGH TEMP
RECORDS FOR THE DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.
IN ADDITION, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH MIXING
DOWN STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON
(40KTS AT 875MB) WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO DECIDE ON A HEADLINE. IF THAT WERE NOT
ENOUGH, WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND VEGETATION RESULT IN GFDI
VALUES IN THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS
NORTHWEST OF A FAIRFIELD TO DUBUQUE LINE BRINGING AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER RISK. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST ABOVE 35% FOR NOW, BUT
IF WE DO INDEED MIX DEEPER, THAN WE COULD BE LOWER ON DEWPOINTS
AND RH VALUES. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB 997MB SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN
TO NORTHERN MI AND WEAKEN. THIS COMBINED WITH BL DECOUPLING WILL
ALLOW THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE. STORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE AND
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. IT WILL BE A RATHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DESPITE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACKS, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARM
850MB TEMPS WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO THE CWA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE FROPA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
ARE FORECAST. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE MO RVR VALLEY THAT TRACKS EAST ACROSS IA OVERNIGHT IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. STILL, SOME
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN IA EARLY SUNDAY AND
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME CELLS PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL/NEAR-SEVERE
WINDS. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FROPA, MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. WITH
THE MAIN FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST, THE SEVERE RISK HAS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH OUT OF OUR CWA. IN
FACT, THE ECMWF SHIFT OF TAILS FOR CAPE-SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THE
AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE SOUTHERN MO/NORTHEAST AR AND INTO THE
OH RVR VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SO THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AM, WITH CAA OCCURRING MAKING FOR A
BRISK DAY AND CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH
INCOMING COLD AIR TO PRODUCE ANY SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS IS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
ECMWF AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL IA TO
NORTHEAST IA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN LATER FORECASTS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO
PASS OVERHEAD BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
TWO UPSTREAM TROFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CONUS TO INDUCE ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE LEE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE
PRECIP CHANCES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE ABSENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AM
THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS FOR BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS MID-LATE MORNING AT CID/MLI/BRL. THUNDER
PROBABILITIES ARE NOW BELOW 5 PERCENT THIS MORNING AND HAVE KEPT
OUT OF THE BRL TAF. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST INTO IL,
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM LASTING AT LEAST INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND WITH LLWS
POSSIBILITIES TO CONSIDER IN LATER ISSUANCES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 28:
KBRL: 84/1910
KCID: 81/1968
KDBQ: 78/1910
KMLI: 81/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 28:
KMLI: 53/1879
MARCH 29:
KMLI: 60/1910
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
CLIMATE...GROSS
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