512
FXUS63 KDVN 280924
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
424 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRYING UP THIS AFTERNOON; SOME OF THE EARLY MORNING
STORMS COULD GENERATE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER RISK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE.
- WARM START TO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING, THANKS TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, ALONG WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-45 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ). WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER HAS HELPED SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. IN FACT, AS OF THIS WRITING, WE HAD ISSUED ONE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES, CAPABLE OF
DROPPING HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. FARTHER NORTHEAST OVER JO
DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES, MAINLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ, BUT THERE
ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THERE. THIS THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNRISE) BEFORE DISSIPATING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY, WITH THE
PERHAPS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES, ENHANCING MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS COULD
BLOW LOOSE OBJECTS AWAY, AS WELL AS SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AT THE LOWEST, SO NOT
A SLAM-DUNK FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY WIND OR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
TODAY. FOR NOW, WE WILL USE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HELP
MESSAGE THIS LOWER-END WIND/FIRE THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, IT'S GOING TO
FEEL QUITE WARM, THANKS TO THE ENHANCED WAA ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH
THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE 850 MB LEVEL ARE AROUND 12
TO 15 DEGREES C, WHICH WOULD PLACE US AROUND THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR
DVN PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ADDITIONALLY, CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL, SO SOME INSOLATION SHOULD
ALSO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES. I'VE GONE CLOSER TO THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH HAS HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE EAST AND
LOWER 80S TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD PLACE US NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
WE'VE LISTED THE CURRENT RECORDS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT
DOES, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH APPEARS TO STALL MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, WHICH SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AS WE
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHERE THIS FRONT SETS
UP WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE ON THE EXACT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK
TO COME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS (60-80+%) AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA AND THE NOCTURNAL LLJ RETURNS TO
ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME CELLS PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL/NEAR-SEVERE WINDS. AS A RESULT,
SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP US IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY, THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE KEY AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A PRETTY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA, WITH A NEARLY
20 DEGREE DELTA-T FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME
NOTABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC HAS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
REMAINING AREA. AN ENHANCED RISK IS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST ON WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WITH INCOMING COLD AIR TO
PRODUCE ANY SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING A SECONDARY DEEPENING LOW RIPPLING UP
TO OUR EAST THAT WOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE AND AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO PORTIONS OF E IOWA AND
NW ILLINOIS. STILL A WAYS OUT BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TO PASS
OVERHEAD BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. TWO
UPSTREAM TROFS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CONUS TO INDUCE ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE PRECIP
CHANCES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS TO THE MIDWEST. WE
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS SPC HAS NOW PLACED OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN A SLIGHT
RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AS OF TAF ISSUANCE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
TERMINALS. WE ARE EXPECTING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW ON THE EXACT
COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY, SO USED TEMPOS/PROB30 GROUPS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER/LOWER, RESPECTIVELY. IF A STORM DID GO OVER
A TERMINAL, THERE WOULD LIKELY BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ALSO EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AS A 35 TO 45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY DUE
TO MIXING, WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KNOTS. THERE IS A
LOWER CHANCE FOR SOME LATE MORNING SHOWERS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 28:
KBRL: 84/1910
KCID: 81/1968
KDBQ: 78/1910
KMLI: 81/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 28:
KMLI: 53/1879
MARCH 29:
KMLI: 60/1910
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...GROSS/MCCLURE/SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLIMATE...GROSS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page