900
FXUS63 KDVN 290550
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK INTO EARLY EVENING.
- LEVEL 1/2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- WARM START TO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVED TO OUR EAST
REPLACED BY SUNNY SKIES AS A CAPPING INVERSION HAS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH STRONG SW FLOW/WAA. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS OWING TO NEAR RECORD OR RECORD WARMTH
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ON GUSTY SW
WINDS 30-40+ MPH. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH
SOME, BUT LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES AT 15-30+ MPH FROM THE
S/SW, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
ABOVE OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE DATE AND IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60F. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY ISOLATED HIGHER BASED WEAK
CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH OF I-80
AND ALSO WEST OF I-380 WITH INSTABILITY AND SOME LIFT ROOTED
ABOVE THE INVERSION. OTHERWISE, STORMS ARE FAVORED TO FORM WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF NE INTO WESTERN WI ALONG A
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND
THUS NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/WEST TONIGHT.
SATURDAY, A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP TO OUR SOUTH WILL
PUT A BIT OF SQUEEZE PLAY ON, AND BECAUSE OF THIS THERE STANDS
AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD STAY DRY THOUGH WITH THE MAIN FORCING AND ATTENDANT
PRECIPITATION AREAS FAVORED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT CHALLENGING WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR ANTICIPATE THAT ENOUGH BREAKS OR
FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD GET HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY (60-80+%) AS A SURFACE
LOW LIFTS UP ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION OF THAT
CONVECTION GIVEN 1) THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE PULLING
NORTHWARD AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND 2) THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS BEING SUGGESTED TO EXIST TO OUR
SOUTH. WHAT COULD END UP HAPPENING IS A SCENARIO BEING DEPICTED
BY THE 12Z MPAS-HT-NSSL CAM IN WHICH ONE AREA OF STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND SEVERE
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH MORE SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL
SHIFTS E/SE WITH THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE, LEAVING MUCH OF THE
AREA POTENTIALLY SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT. NONETHELESS, WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IF WE HAVE ANY CELLS HOLD TOGETHER BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT THEN CAN'T RULE OUT A RISK OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, AND AS SUCH SPC CONTINUES WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, AS THE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY IT WILL USHER IN
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE TIMING
OF THE LOW AND FRONT, AND WHETHER OR NOT WE'LL SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING AREA. AN ENHANCED RISK
IS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, A TRANSITORY DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
COLDER AIR SHOULD TRANSITION ANY RAIN OVER TO A MIX WITH OR EVEN
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) FOR SOME LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS, BUT AT THIS TIME
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING COLDER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO PAINT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK, WITH PHASING OF
TWO UPSTREAM TROUGHS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CONUS. THE INDUCED COLORADO LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND LOOK TO
BRING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE MIDWEST DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. WE
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY AS SPC HAS PLACED OUR SOUTHEASTERN HALF
IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EVENTUALLY, THE
LLWS WILL DIMINISH AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST. MVFR CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE
THANKS TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.
SOME HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ON
COVERAGE AND TIMING, GIVEN DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA,
BUT UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN FOR TIMING, SO USED PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER FURTHER, WITH IFR TO
PERHAPS EVEN LIFR HEIGHTS POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY MARCH 28:
KBRL: 84/1910
KCID: 81/1968
KDBQ: 78/1910
KMLI: 81/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 28:
KMLI: 53/1879
MARCH 29:
KMLI: 60/1910
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLIMATE...GROSS
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