984
FXUS63 KDVN 311047
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN OUR REGION, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENT GOES-EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE MORE SEASONAL COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, MAKING FOR A QUIET NIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR NORTH AS CHANCES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-40%). THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP
SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 35 MPH AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A 130+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSING
TOWARDS OUR REGION. LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS FROM THE GEFS, EPS, AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH. THE FULL SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A COLORADO LOW DEVELOPING VIA LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND
TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH THE GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS GENERAL PATH, WITH THE GENERAL
CLUSTERING OF THE ENSEMBLE SURFACE LOWS AROUND WESTERN IOWA BY 12Z/7
AM WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SUGGEST PRETTY
LOW MSLPS, WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (80-100% CHANCES), WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. A VERY STOUT 50-60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP, AIDING IN POLEWARD THETA-E
TRANSPORT AND SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (>60 KTS). MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT - GENERALLY
AROUND 6.5 TO 7.5 DEGREE C/KM, BUT GIVEN THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
MAINLY BE ELEVATED, HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF EFI CAPE-SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.7
TO 0.9, INDICATING A NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL OF
THIS SAID, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL. THEN, SPC
HAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR
CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AFTER 12Z/7 AM WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS. FOR WEDNESDAY'S
CONVECTION, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND TORNADOES) AS STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED, WITH MIXED-
LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A TIME BEFORE BECOMING MORE STRAIGHT-
LINED PER THE LREF ENSEMBLE HODOGRAPHS. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, SO STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS! WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WITH OUR REGION REMAINING NORTH OF A
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE, MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AFTER A WARM
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN AS OF TAF ISSUANCE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME BREAKS STARTING TO FORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS MORNING, HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT MVFR STRATUS DISSIPATES,
ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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