099
FXUS63 KDVN 010912 CCA
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
412 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
- A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES FURTHER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 40 TO
50 PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO
GALESBURG LINE.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A 100 KNOT JET STREAK IS FORECAST
TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM AT 500 MB MOVING FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE LOW TO LIFT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
BY 00 UTC THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH IOWA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA RESULTING IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPING
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS IOWA BUT THINK THAT ANY
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THIS
AREA.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT RESULTING
IN ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT
RANGING FROM 300 TO 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WILL RESULT IN THE
MAIN THREATS OVERNIGHT BEING LARGE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO IOWA AFTER 09 UTC, MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
WINDOW. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MODELS SHOW MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAMS
HAVE SHOWN A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OR SOUTHWEST
AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09 AND 15 UTC.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AT 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS WINDOW IF STORMS ARE SURFACE
BASED WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR HAIL.
SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.
THE HRRR IS MUCH FASTER IN MOVING THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE NAM NEST SHOWS SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS THE STORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN LOOKING OVER THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, THERE ARE SIMILARITIES
AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE LAST WEEKEND.
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOWS ARE SIMILAR. THE DIFFERENCES ARE THE
MUCH BETTER AND STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK.
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK AREA FOR THIS EVENT IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE
ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST, ROUGHLY A 8
TO 18 PERCENT CHANCE, THAT SEVERE STORMS COULD BISECT THE AREA. THAT
IS, REMAIN WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TIME WILL
TELL IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST HAS A
PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AREA WIDE.
MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
SPREADS RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES BY, COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL TURN
SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 12 UTC AND INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AFTER 18 UTC AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00
UTC. TIMING AT THIS TIME IS LOW CONFIDENCE AND HAVE PLACED
PROB30S IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS MAINLY FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 03 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS/08
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...COUSINS
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