969   
FXUS63 KDVN 011059  
AFDDVN  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
559 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO   
  WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE   
  MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.  
  
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
  BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.  
  
- A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK  
  WITH TWO ADDITIONAL BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE  
  MIDWEST.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
  
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF   
THE ROCKIES FURTHER DEVELOPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS   
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST   
OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO   
35 MPH. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 40 TO   
50 PERCENT WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE   
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL   
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ALONG THE   
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO   
GALESBURG LINE.   
  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A 100 KNOT JET STREAK IS FORECAST  
TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES  
WITH A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM AT 500 MB MOVING FROM SOUTH   
DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE   
SURFACE LOW TO LIFT FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA  
BY 00 UTC THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS THROUGH IOWA   
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS   
THE AREA RESULTING IN STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION   
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S   
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS STORM   
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY   
AFTERNOON.  
  
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPING   
TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST   
FORCING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ACROSS IOWA BUT THINK THAT ANY   
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THIS   
AREA.  
  
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS   
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI TONIGHT RESULTING  
IN ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE   
AROUND 50 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH CAPE VALUES NORTH OF THE FRONT   
RANGING FROM 300 TO 500 J/KG. ELEVATED STORMS WILL RESULT IN THE   
MAIN THREATS OVERNIGHT BEING LARGE HAIL WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF  
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF   
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.  
  
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO IOWA AFTER 09 UTC, MODEL   
CONSENSUS HAS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS   
WINDOW. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MODELS SHOW MOST  
UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAMS  
HAVE SHOWN A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OR SOUTHWEST   
AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09 AND 15 UTC.   
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AT 50 TO 60 MPH TO THE   
NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS WINDOW IF STORMS ARE SURFACE  
BASED WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR HAIL.   
SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES ESPECIALLY  
NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.   
  
THE HRRR IS MUCH FASTER IN MOVING THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA  
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE NAM NEST SHOWS SOME  
INTENSIFICATION AS THE STORMS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND  
SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.   
  
IN LOOKING OVER THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM, THERE ARE SIMILARITIES   
AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE LAST WEEKEND.   
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE LOWS ARE SIMILAR. THE DIFFERENCES ARE THE   
MUCH BETTER AND STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OUTBREAK.   
HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK AREA FOR THIS EVENT IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE   
ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST, ROUGHLY A 8   
TO 18 PERCENT CHANCE, THAT SEVERE STORMS COULD BISECT THE AREA. THAT   
IS, REMAIN WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND   
THEN WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TIME WILL   
TELL IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.  
  
  
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
  
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST HAS A  
PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND   
FRIDAY AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST   
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AREA WIDE.  
  
MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS  
SPREADS RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY  
NIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES BY, COOLER AIR  
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.  
THIS MAY BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING  
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL  
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025  
  
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS   
MORNING. THIS HAS CAUSED SURFACE WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN EASTERN  
COLORAO AND WESTERN KANSAS. SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 10   
TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF   
THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON   
AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.   
  
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR   
SHOWERS AFTER 18 UTC AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE  
CONTINUED TO USE PROB30S FOR THESE SHOWERS DUE TO LOWER  
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. SHOWERS ARE   
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 03 TO 06 UTC ACROSS THE  
AREA. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AFTER 06 UTC AT ALL TAF  
SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING SO USED PROB   
30S AT ALL TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY.   
  
  
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...COUSINS  
LONG TERM...COUSINS  
AVIATION...COUSINS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab IL Page

The Nexlab IA Page

The Nexlab MO Page

Main Text Page