543
FXUS63 KDVN 011959
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE.
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ON WEDNESDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
- A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
HEADLINES: WIND ADVISORY ISSUED WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF I-80 FROM NOON TO 7 PM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO
50 MPH. THIS ADVISORY CAN BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD IF NEEDED FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
OTHER CHANGES: THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FARTHER INTO ILLINOIS AND IN THE DVN FORECAST AREA IS
EAST OF A PROPHETSTOWN TO BISHOP HILL LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) STILL COVERS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA.
DETAILS:
POTENT STORM SYSTEM (983 MB) WILL BE TRACKING FROM WESTERN KS TO
WESTERN WI. VERY INTENSE SYSTEM WITH H2 JET STREAK OF 155 KT, H5
OF 136 KT, AND H8 LLJ OF 72 KT EXPECTED. BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE RANGE OF 55-65 KT IN THE VERY STRONG CATEGORY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THEN THE MAIN AREA OF STORMS ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL
IN THE STRONGER STORMS, WITH MANY STORMS HAVING SMALL HAIL.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CAM'S BRINGS IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. DEFINITELY A STORMY NIGHT AHEAD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF THE 72 KT LLJ AND PWAT'S INCREASING
TO OVER AN INCH.
ON WEDNESDAY: SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING WITH VERY STRONG
SHEAR AND INCEASING CAPE/MOISTURE. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IN THE MORNING. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW LONG
THE STORMS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON TO AFFECT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRY PUNCH/STRONG
COLD FRONT. THE CAM'S SUGGESTS SEVERAL HOURS OF A BREAK IN THE
ACTION THEN A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS FORMING EITHER IN CENTRAL OR
EASTERN IOWA THEN RACING EASTWARD, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ENDS IN OUR
ILLINOIS COUNTIES BY 6 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY WITH SUCH A STRONG WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS COUNTING ON THE
FRONT TO LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, IF
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS COULD HOLD THE
WARM FRONT UP FOR A WHILE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST HAS A
PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH CLOUDY SKIES AREA WIDE.
MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS
SPREADS RAIN NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH MOVES BY, COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06Z/02 THROUGH
17Z/02. THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF
SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TO 35 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ088-089-
098-099.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ025-026-
034-035.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE/COUSINS
AVIATION...HAASE
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