439
FXUS63 KDVN 202336
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
SOUTH OF I-80.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE MISSOURI WITH A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING NORTHWARD JUST SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ISOLATED AREAS THAT GET HIT BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD RECEIVE 3"+ OF RAINFALL.
- TEMPERATURE WARMING INTO THE 70S THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
DOWNSTREAM BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
IS INTENSIFY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND
HEADING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD A 1008MB
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, MARKED BY A JUMP
IN TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 70S AND NOTABLE CLEARING ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
TO THE NNE INTO THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY PULLING THE WARM
SECTOR INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO A CERTAIN EXTENT; HOWEVER,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 60S
AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG
SOUTH OF I-80 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED QLCS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 - 6 PM, THEN TRACKING TO THE NNE
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 5 - 9 PM, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WITH TIME.
HREF MEAN 2-5 KM UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHEST GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE EMBEDDED, OR EVEN A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE. THE HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-3 KM BULK VALUES BETWEEN 35-45 KTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF QLCS MESOVORTICES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW
NARROW CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK AREA. ADDITIONALLY, ANY
SUSTAINED SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS COULD POSE A LARGE HAIL RISK.
ANOTHER CONCERN DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IS FOR ISOLATED AREAS TO RECEIVE 3"+ OF TOTAL RAINFALL,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE AREA MOST AT
RISK FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SPC OUTLOOK: THE ENHANCED RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND THE SLIGHT RISK
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE
DESPITE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WARM UP INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME-FRAME, COOLING INTO
THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY FOR BRL, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
DRAMATICALLY, ULTIMATELY BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND
REMAINING GUSTY. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHES, IFR
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE/UTTECH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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