384
FXUS63 KDVN 211737
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TODAY: THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN
SPOTS, WAS FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS WILL FEATURE
THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT: WE START OUT CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NE TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF
THE CAM'S BRINGS IN SHOWERS INTO OUR NW COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST, A SHORT WAVE IN THE
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
SPC HAS DEPICTED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST AT
AROUND 40 KTS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT (-19C AT H5) WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE OF ABOUT 500 J/KG. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SEVERAL WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
TRIGGER PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NBM HAS
NEARLY DAILY CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH 60S THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, TIMING OF THESE WAVES THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO
BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CLOUD DECK SAGGING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL IOWA, LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST NEAR 21.18Z TAF ISSUANCE. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS, HAVE CONTINUED VFR PREVAILING WITH TEMPO MVFR AS
FLUCTUATING UPSTREAM CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
SUBSEQUENT CONCERNS OF FG/BR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
CLEARING SKIES MAY CAUSE SUFFICIENT SURFACE COOLING FOR NEAR SURFACE
SATURATION. PRIMARY CONCERNS EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE, HAVE TEMPO'ED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CURRENT
FORECAST HOUR BUT WILL BE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CONCERN TO MONITOR.
DIFFICULTY SURROUNDS TIMING OF INCREASING OFF DECK WINDS CAUSING
MIXING OF LOWEST LEVELS AND LIMITING OVERALL RESTRICTIONS.
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCTED MVFR CEILINGS FROM MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE ACCOMPANYING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ARX
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