090
FXUS63 KDVN 220829
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN OUR
NORTH.
- SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ACTIVE AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP WITH PRECIP CHANCES
ALMOST EVERY DAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND, AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S
AND 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. CAM'S SHOW SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA, ONE
THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF I-80, THEN ANOTHER ROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AND A THIRD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN
THESE ROUNDS WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS ALL OF OUR
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN RISKS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 ALONG HWY 20 TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONTINUED PATTERN WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
WEST-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AROUND BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS UPPER RIDGE. VERTICAL FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAKER ON
WED, BUT WITH A ONGOING QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT ALIGNED WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL FLOW AND STILL TRYING TO RETREAT NORTH, WILL HAVE TO
KEEP POPS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE WAVE
TIMING HAS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACRS THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL MORE ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE AREA AT THAT TIME. BEFORE THE WAVE'S
ARRIVAL, A POTENTIAL INCREASED RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY WARM
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 IN
SOME SPOTS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON WAVE PROGRESSION AND
TIMING, SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OUT OF THU NIGHT MAY EXIT OFF
TO THE EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THIS
TYPE OF DETAIL WITH THIS PATTERN AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER WAVE CAN
PROGRESS ACRS AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, WILL OPEN UP THE
AREA TO BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING FOR A DRY BUT COOLER SATURDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA IN A SLIGHT RISK (15% PROBABILITY) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 THIS MORNING, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON MODEL TRENDS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE/12
AVIATION...HAASE
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