257  
FXUS63 KDVN 221758  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
   
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN OUR  
NORTH.  
 
- SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST  
AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
- ACTIVE AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP WITH PRECIP CHANCES  
ALMOST EVERY DAY UNTIL THE WEEKEND, AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S  
AND 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES  
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH A QUASI-  
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. CAM'S SHOW SEVERAL  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA, ONE  
THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF I-80, THEN ANOTHER ROUND THIS  
AFTERNOON AND A THIRD THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN  
THESE ROUNDS WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY WEATHER.  
 
SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS ALL OF OUR  
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN RISKS ARE FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S  
SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 ALONG HWY 20 TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONTINUED PATTERN WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER  
WEST-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AROUND BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHEASTERN  
CONUS UPPER RIDGE. VERTICAL FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES LOOK WEAKER ON  
WED, BUT WITH A ONGOING QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONT ALIGNED WITH THE  
HIGHER LEVEL FLOW AND STILL TRYING TO RETREAT NORTH, WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP POPS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT ENSEMBLE WAVE  
TIMING HAS A RIDGE-RIDING VORT MAX PROPAGATING ACRS THE AREA LATE THU  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A POTENTIAL MORE ORGANIZED STORM  
CLUSTER DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE AREA AT THAT TIME. BEFORE THE WAVE'S  
ARRIVAL, A POTENTIAL INCREASED RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY WARM  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR 80 IN  
SOME SPOTS.  
 
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON WAVE PROGRESSION AND  
TIMING, SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OUT OF THU NIGHT MAY EXIT OFF  
TO THE EAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THIS  
TYPE OF DETAIL WITH THIS PATTERN AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER WAVE CAN  
PROGRESS ACRS AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, WILL OPEN UP THE  
AREA TO BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING FOR A DRY BUT COOLER SATURDAY  
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE  
PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK  
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG  
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY HAS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN IA IN A SLIGHT RISK (15% PROBABILITY) FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THEM POSSIBLY  
GETTING INTO THE VCNTY OF MLI AND ESPECIALLY BRL WITH PASSING  
BOUTS OF MVFR VSBYS AND VARIABLE WIND UPTICKS. MORE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER  
10 PM AS A LLJ INCREASES AND PRODUCES THEM ON IT'S CONVERGENT  
NOSE. WHERE THE MAIN WEST-TO-EAST LINE OF STORMS LAYS OUT IS  
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT ALL SITES MAY BE AT RISK. MANY OF  
THE LATEST CAMS HINT AT THE ACTIVE ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE  
HAIL AND BOUTS OF LOW MVFR TO IFR HEAVY RAIN REDUCED VSBYS. MAY  
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME TRANSIENT FOG ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY  
WHEN IT'S NOT RAINING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME  
PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF HWY 30 LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON THAT.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...HAASE  
LONG TERM...HAASE  
AVIATION...12  
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