878
FXUS63 KDVN 231757
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1257 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS.
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A 30-35 KT LLJ POINTED INTO OUR AREA IMPINGING ON A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA, AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
HAS TRIGGERED A COUPLE OF BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR HAS HAD THE MOST STORMS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES, ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HEIGHTS RISE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY A BIT
FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE THE
FOCUS OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN ROUGHLY
OUR NORTHWEST HALF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO ONE INCH
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL. FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 9300 FT
WITH MUCAPE 1000-1600 J/KG.
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AND AT LEAST SEVERAL DRY HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
LINGERING RIDGE EFFECTS AND DRY AIR MAY ERODE INCOMING ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST UNTIL THERE'S BETTER SUPPORT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (15% PROBABILITY) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF THE DVN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, AND IN OUR SE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SO IT WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER-LIKE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TAFS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS
STORMS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE COME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AT KCID
AND KDBQ ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04 AND 10 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...COUSINS
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