512
FXUS63 KDVN 232353
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WEST
OF A FAIRFIELD TO DUBUQUE LINE. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
SEE A JUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES LARGELY
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AT 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66
DEGREES AT DUBUQUE TO 77 DEGREES AT MACOMB. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
AFTER 03 UTC AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO
WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE THAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. CAPE ACROSS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS NORTH OF FAIRFIELD TO STERLING ROCK FALLS LINE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER SUNRISE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO AN AREA WEST OF A FAIRFIELD
TO CEDAR RAPIDS LINE AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL
AFTER 18 UTC THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LIMITED ON THURSDAY AND DO NOT SEE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
LINGERING RIDGE EFFECTS AND DRY AIR MAY ERODE INCOMING ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST UNTIL THERE'S BETTER SUPPORT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (15% PROBABILITY) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF THE DVN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, AND IN OUR SE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SO IT WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER-LIKE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
INITIAL FOCUS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA AT CID AND DBQ IN PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
HAS BEEN HANDLED WITH PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR AMENDMENTS PENDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THE
STRONGEST CELLS COULD POSE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AM COULD BRING SOME PATCHY FOG THREAT AT THESE
SITES AS WELL WITH THE BOUNDARY NEARBY AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
MOISTENING UP THE LOW LEVELS. CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE ALSO EXISTS WITH
CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL AND FOR
NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION BEYOND THIS EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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