606
FXUS63 KDVN 240547
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WEST
OF A FAIRFIELD TO DUBUQUE LINE. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
SEE A JUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES LARGELY
CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AT 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66
DEGREES AT DUBUQUE TO 77 DEGREES AT MACOMB. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
AFTER 03 UTC AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT WEST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO
WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE THAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. CAPE ACROSS
THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS NORTH OF FAIRFIELD TO STERLING ROCK FALLS LINE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER SUNRISE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED TO AN AREA WEST OF A FAIRFIELD
TO CEDAR RAPIDS LINE AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD UNTIL
AFTER 18 UTC THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHT CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LIMITED ON THURSDAY AND DO NOT SEE A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: A DECENT SHORT WAVE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: WITH THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS
WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO OUR AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
PROGRESSING RIDGE AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE
LINGERING RIDGE EFFECTS AND DRY AIR MAY ERODE INCOMING ACTIVITY
FROM THE WEST UNTIL THERE'S BETTER SUPPORT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT
RISK (15% PROBABILITY) FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF THE DVN
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, AND IN OUR SE COUNTIES ON TUESDAY. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES ON THIS RATHER LARGE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TO OKLAHOMA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SO IT WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER-LIKE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF DBQ TO VTI WHERE IT
INTERSECTS AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW AND COOL POOL
FROM EARLIER SEVERE CONVECTION IN NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA.
FORCING FROM BOTH WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
OVERNIGHT AT CID AND DBQ PARTICULARLY WHERE PROB30 MENTION WAS
INCLUDED THROUGH 09Z-11Z. THEREAFTER, I CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AT TIMES THE REST OF THE PERIOD AT
ALL SITES BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION THIS FAR OUT AND
WILL NEED TO MONITOR MESOANALYSIS TO DEFINE POSSIBLE CORRIDORS
AND TIMING OF BETTER CHANCES IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
PARTICULAR AT DBQ NORTH OF THE SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE, BUT THIS
TOO IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT ALL SITES VFR.
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS WELL WITH THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO CID AND DBQ
FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED GUSTINESS
TO 20 KTS, THEN SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER AS FLOW TURNS WEAK. MLI AND BRL WILL BE
VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TURNING MORE EASTERLY FOR A
TIME THURSDAY, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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