337
FXUS63 KDVN 251802
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WEEKEND WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WHILE CONFIDENCE ON
THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
PERIOD TO WATCH FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IS
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, SLOWLY LEADING TO THE EROSION OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
WITH LOWER MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR NW
CWA FROM SEEING ANY FROST TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY. WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 60 AREA-WIDE LOOK LIKELY. OVERALL A NICE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
ON SUNDAY AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PROGRESSING RIDGE
AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRYING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE LINGERING RIDGE
EFFECTS AND DRY AIR MAY ERODE INCOMING ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
UNTIL THERE'S BETTER SUPPORT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY ALSO
SHUNT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, BUT
WE MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH DECAY DEBRIS/CLOUDS IN SOME
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL A WARMER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LARGE PIECE OF THE UPSTREAM LONG WAVE ACRS THE WESTERN ROCKIES
EJECTING OUT ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PLENTY OF CONCEPTUAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY
BE A SEVERE WEATHER MAKER, BUT SOME OF THE TRENDS SUCH AS POSITIVE
TILT TO THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND PRE-SYSTEM DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
UNIFORM FLOW MAYBE NOT SO TORNADIC LOOKING AT THIS TIME. ALSO LIKE
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT STATED, AT THIS FAR OUT STILL PLENTY OF PHASING
AND TIMING ISSUES TO BETTER DEFINE IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH THE
ENERGY CENTER STILL WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FULL
BLOWN WARM SECTOR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WAA, PUMPING
TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND SFC DPTS IN THE 60S. SO CAPES WILL BE THERE
FOR THE KINEMATICS, AGAIN IT'S TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BLEED INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. CURRENT ENSEMBLES
THAT STRIKE OUR AREA WITH MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS, THEN
PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH EASTWARD ENOUGH FOR TUESDAY CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA. SYSTEM WAKE RIDGING
FOLLOWING THE CYCLONE WOULD BRING ABOUT DRY COOLER WEATHER INTO THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT, OTHERWISE MOST SITES
WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIG WX IMPACTS
TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WITH RECENT BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY MORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE SEEING SOME
RISES ALONG THE UPPER BASINS OF THE IOWA, WAPSI, AND CEDAR
RIVERS. THESE RIVERS WILL LIKLEY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-
BANK RISES. SOME POINTS AND STRETCHES OF THESE RIVERS MAY ALSO
SURPASS ACTION STAGE INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED WAS LESS THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
WHICH RESULTED IN DECREASES IN THE FORECAST RISES ON THE RIVERS.
ALTHOUGH, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. THUS, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE THESE RISES, WITH POSSIBLY MORE RIVERS TO
WATCH OUT FOR WHEN THE TIME COMES. AT THE MOMENT, ONLY TWO
RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FORECAST GOING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE THE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WAPSI AT
DE WITT AND THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...12/UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
HYDROLOGY...GUNKEL
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