271
FXUS63 KDVN 252334
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WEEKEND WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
- QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANCE FOR POPS RETURN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT, SLOWLY LEADING TO THE EROSION OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
WITH LOWER MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR NW
CWA FROM SEEING ANY FROST TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY. WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 60 AREA-WIDE LOOK LIKELY. OVERALL A NICE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
ON SUNDAY AS WE GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PROGRESSING RIDGE
AXIS, ELEVATED RETURN FLOW MAY SPAWN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRYING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST. BUT THE LINGERING RIDGE
EFFECTS AND DRY AIR MAY ERODE INCOMING ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST
UNTIL THERE'S BETTER SUPPORT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MAY ALSO
SHUNT THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, BUT
WE MAY STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH DECAY DEBRIS/CLOUDS IN SOME
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL A WARMER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ALL ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WAVE EJECT OFF OF THE
MAIN LONG WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY INTO THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS ON MONDAY, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO A POTENT SEVERE WEATHER SET UP.
WITH A PROGRESSIVE WAVE THE LIFT IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT COULD
BE AND THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER. THE DETAILS IN
TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER
AS WELL. THE 00Z CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE PAINTS THE
EPICENTER OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA. SUPERCELLS LOOK
LIKELY, THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS GROWS UPSCALE.
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE, THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SUPERCELL
STAY SOMEWHAT SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE GFS HAS A SFC WAVE RIDING
UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THIS COULD BE TROUBLE AS FAR AS ENHANCING LLVL HELICITY. A LOT
OF MOVING PARTS THAT ARE NOT THAT CLEAR YET. PAY ATTENTION TO
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
LATEST 2256Z SATELLITE HAS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUAL BECOME
VFR DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR AND STRONGER WINDS
BECOMING VFR AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD FOR AVIATION AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WITH RECENT BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY MORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE SEEING SOME
RISES ALONG THE UPPER BASINS OF THE IOWA, WAPSI, AND CEDAR
RIVERS. THESE RIVERS WILL LIKLEY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-
BANK RISES. SOME POINTS AND STRETCHES OF THESE RIVERS MAY ALSO
SURPASS ACTION STAGE INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED WAS LESS THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
WHICH RESULTED IN DECREASES IN THE FORECAST RISES ON THE RIVERS.
ALTHOUGH, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. THUS, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE THESE RISES, WITH POSSIBLY MORE RIVERS TO
WATCH OUT FOR WHEN THE TIME COMES. AT THE MOMENT, ONLY TWO
RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FORECAST GOING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE THE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WAPSI AT
DE WITT AND THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...HOLICKY
HYDROLOGY...GUNKEL
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