412
FXUS63 KDVN 261734
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE WEEKEND WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS IS MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, LOW HUMIDITY AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S! IT
WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO NORTHEAST OUTLOOK AREA. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST IN LOW-LYING COLD SPOTS.
ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY: THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST LOCALLY LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP TO PULL WARMER AIR UP INTO
THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F.
ALL-IN-ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY TO END THE WEEKEND WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. INCREASING WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT (850-700MB) MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE COVERAGE WITH NBM CHANCES BETWEEN
20-40%, HIGHEST NW OF THE QUAD CITIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF FROM A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG
SURFACE LOW (~995MB) WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND QUICKLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, REACHING NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN.
NWP AND ML GUIDANCE ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST. THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S, DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S, AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (30-35+ MPH) LEADING TO STRONG LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR. THE LATEST CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES PAINT THE
EPICENTER OF THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL TO
EASTERN IOWA, AND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THE EC IS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DOWN INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA, WHILE THE GFS IS
FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) ACROSS MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AND A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTION. AS MENTIONED, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A
LINE OF STORMS FORMING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN
SWEEPING THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SCATTERED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE AT PLAY
WITH THIS EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILS
IN THE COMING DAYS.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT
TIMES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WITH RECENT BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POSSIBLY MORE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE SEEING SOME
RISES ALONG THE UPPER BASINS OF THE IOWA, WAPSI, AND CEDAR
RIVERS. THESE RIVERS WILL LIKLEY EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-
BANK RISES. SOME POINTS AND STRETCHES OF THESE RIVERS MAY ALSO
SURPASS ACTION STAGE INTO FLOOD STAGE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED WAS LESS THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
WHICH RESULTED IN DECREASES IN THE FORECAST RISES ON THE RIVERS.
ALTHOUGH, THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. THUS, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE THESE RISES, WITH POSSIBLY MORE RIVERS TO
WATCH OUT FOR WHEN THE TIME COMES. AT THE MOMENT, ONLY TWO
RIVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FORECAST GOING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE THE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WAPSI AT
DE WITT AND THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
HYDROLOGY...GUNKEL
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