082
FXUS63 KDVN 151746
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL IL.
- HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS HITTING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
A WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM RANGE FROM 66
DEGREES AT VINTON AND DUBUQUE TO 71 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON AND
CEDAR RAPIDS.AT 2 AM, AN ARCING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM VINTON TO NEAR ELDRIDGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ARM ADVECTION ALOFT THAT IS LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEFORE SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED SO THE SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY
18 UTC TODAY. THEN A DRY LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN
18 UTC AND 00 UTC FRIDAY SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THEN QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 50S. ONCE
THE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S, THIS WILL END ANY STORM
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE
SEASON TO DATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 90 TO 94 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE ARE NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DATE. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP
WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SMALL 4
TO 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 2 PM TO 7 PM. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
IMPACTS CAPE. THE NAM IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS A LARGE AREA RESULTING IN MU CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J.KG
WHILE OTHER MODELS VARY BETWEEN 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP DESPITE THE CAP, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THAT THE MOSTLY LIKELY AREA TO
SEE STORMS IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF A MANCHESTER TO MOLINE TO PEORIA LINE WITH
A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK EAST OF A GALENA TO STERLING
ROCK FALLS TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS LINE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MN WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND
FORTH ON DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 40S AND RH VALUES
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT AHEAD
OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION IS CORRECT, THIS COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OR
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SHIFTED
THE SEVERE THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DEEP MIXING UP TO 800MB AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME BUFR SOUNDINGS EVEN SHOW
SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH 45KT WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS WEEKEND...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
BRING US DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DIGGING WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH TO TRACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY JUST TO OUR WEST WITH CSU ML
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING WESTERN IA AND WESTERN MO UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE IN LATER FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION, NBM/ECE/GEFS 24-HR RAINFALL PROBABILITIES GREATER
THAN 0.50" ARE IN THE 50-70% RANGE AT THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD BE
GREAT NEWS FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS.
SCATTERED CU WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOME
LESS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON, WITH FEW CIRRUS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. BIGGER ISSUE
IS THE WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BECOMING SOUTHWEST FOR AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 30KTS AT ALL SITES.
GUSTS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT EVEN MORE FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS
DURING THE MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KBRL: 93 / 1944
KCID: 94 / 1941
KDBQ: 90 / 1944
KMLI: 91 / 1941
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KDBQ: 67 / 2001
KMLI: 69 / 2001
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GROSS/UTTECH
AVIATION...AUTEN
CLIMATE...GROSS
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