228
FXUS63 KDVN 151817
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
- HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS HITTING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY
PEAKING 40 - 45+ MPH.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A POTENT, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, AND
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW (~980MB) NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, MARKING A SSE TO
WSW WIND SHIFT AND SIGNIFICANT DROP IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 F DOWN INTO THE
50S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DIURNAL BL MIXING WILL AID IN PUSHING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS VERY WARM AIR AT 850MB
(NEAR 20 C) IS ADIABATICALLY MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE COUNTIES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES,
WITH A SMALL AREA OF AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) IN EASTERN
STEPHENSON COUNTY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDS BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES.
WHILE THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2500+
J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION,
CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AREAL COVERAGE,
ALTHOUGH WITH A WIDE VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO BE ONE OF THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH CI IN OUR OUTLOOK AREA,
HOLDING OFF DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EITHER NEAR OR EAST OF OUR EASTERN
BORDER. OTHER CAMS SUCH AS THE NSSL/ARW/NAMNEST DEVELOP
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 PM. AND THIS IS LIKELY THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
FOR TODAY -- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACTING THE
EASTERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, BEFORE THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THE
OTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO PROGRESS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT CI IS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
SETUP IS THERE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SECONDARY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FRIDAY: WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A MUCH DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN TO SOUTHEAST ND
WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. STRONG, GUSTY SW TO WSW WINDS ARE FORECAST
LOCALLY WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN ON THURSDAY, BUT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO HIGH-BASED ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE WINDS TO 50+
MPH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DISPLAY MUCAPE OF 500+ J/KG AND DCAPE
NEAR 1200 J/KG. ON A SEPARATE NOTE, SINCE SIGNIFICANT GREEN-UP
OF VEGETATION AND AREA GRASSES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS SPRING
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MUTED. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 20-30%, BURNING IS DISCOURAGED ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 70S
ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 30 MPH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
NEXT WEEK: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY. NBM HIGHS ARE IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS.
SCATTERED CU WILL AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOME
LESS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON, WITH FEW CIRRUS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. BIGGER ISSUE
IS THE WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
BECOMING SOUTHWEST FOR AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 30KTS AT ALL SITES.
GUSTS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT EVEN MORE FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS
DURING THE MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KBRL: 93 / 1944
KCID: 94 / 1941
KDBQ: 90 / 1944
KMLI: 91 / 1941
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KDBQ: 67 / 2001
KMLI: 69 / 2001
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...AUTEN
CLIMATE...GROSS
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