614
FXUS63 KDVN 160829
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
POTENTIALLY PEAKING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 40 - 45+ MPH.
POTENTIAL ALSO FOR CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN EVEN HIGHER
WINDS (ISOLATED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING?).
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES
(60-80%) ARE FOCUSED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY. CONFIDENCE ON ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY THIS MORNING
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM, ONE CURRENTLY SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
OTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS DIVING INTO COLORADO, BOTH DENOTED BY
SOME MID CLOUDINESS. THE FIRST WAVE IN KANSAS IS THE FEATURE
THAT WILL LARGELY DRIVE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW. SEVERAL CAMS INCLUDING THE HRRR,
MPAS-HT-NSSL, WRF NSSL AND NAMNEST ALL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DECAYING NOCTURNAL LLJ ASSISTED PRECIPITATION (SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES) ARRIVING BY MID TO LATE MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEN HEADING TOWARD PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITHIN
A CORRIDOR OF MEAN MUCAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG PER THE 00Z HREF.
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED V TYPE PROFILES WITH
VERY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE WIND AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
WHERE SPC HAS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SOME OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. DON'T GET TOO LOCKED INTO
THE ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL BEING JUST FOR OUR EAST, AS THE
PROFILES (VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOMENTUM
FIELDS ALOFT) ARE CONDUCIVE NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR SOME MIXDOWN OF
STRONGER NEAR SEVERE WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION OF MORE VIGOR THAT
CAN SURVIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND PERSIST. THE SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO COLORADO LOOKS TO HAVE ITS EYES SET
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IN THESE AREAS.
AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM
FOR OUR AREA WILL RETURN LATE PM/EVENING IN THE WRAP-AROUND AND
POTENTIAL EMBEDDED SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING DOWN INTO THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, A RESIDUAL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN COMBINATION WITH A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MIXING DOWN OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND
GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OF 35 TO 45 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST VEERING TO WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME ON REACHING WIDESPREAD CRITERIA WITH
NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES AT 20-40% FOR SUSTAINED WINDS >30 MPH
AND GUSTS >45 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY COULD FEATURE A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE
MID/LATE MORNING SHOWER/SPRINKLE POTENTIAL AND ATTENDANT
CLOUDS POSSIBLY LIMITING SOME WESTERN AREAS TO THE MID/UPPER
70S, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST IN THE VERY DEEP MIXING TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE
HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
BRINGING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO
THE 70S AREAWIDE.
EARLY WEEK THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINS, AS A SMORGASBORD OF ENERGY DUMPS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
THAT THEN TRANSLATES EASTWARD FORMING A CLOSED LOW MOVING
SLOWLY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WOULD ALLOW AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO
BECOME ENTRAINED WITH EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICTING
PWATS OVER 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES, WHICH ACCORDING TO SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR ALL DVN RAOBS FOR THE DATES OF MAY 19/20TH.
THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST, WHICH BASED ON THE
STRENGTH OF FORCING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MATCH THE PWAT AND
ACCUMULATE AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES FOR SOME BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND LINGERING MOIST CONVEYOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD SEEM PLAUSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LLWS IS STILL FORECAST LATE TONIGHT FOR CID AND DBQ.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (DBQ AND CID)
AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE ON THESE CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AT MLI OR BRL IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. WINDS WILL
VEER TO MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AND REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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