418  
FXUS63 KDVN 281944  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
- A THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
- THE PATTERN LOOKS TO DRY OUT FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT: A REMNANT MCV FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LAST  
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA,  
WAS DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WEAKENING THROUGH  
THE DAY AND THEREFORE PROVIDING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT DUE TO  
NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE. SO FAR TODAY, THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN  
REPORTS OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20  
CORRIDOR. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO POP UP (LESS THAN 15%). PEAK  
HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE  
OUTLOOK AREA, HOLDING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ANY  
EXTENDED PERIOD. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT: THE MORNING HOURS MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS THAT BACK BUILD INTO THE LLJ  
AXIS, BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED. BY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON, A  
DRY PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS WE WAIT FOR THE INCOMING FRONT  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING AN ORGANIZED  
LINE OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL ARRIVE IN  
OUR AREA WITH LESS CERTAINTY. MANY CAMS SHOW CONVECTION DROPPING  
MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING INTO THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS, WITH OUR AREA SEEING  
LESS ACTIVITY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AFTER 3 PM (20-30%).  
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (40-70%, HIGHEST  
IN THE WEST). WITH PWATS OVER 1.75", LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER TAKE PLACE, DAMAGING  
WINDS SEEM THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS A LEVEL 2 OF 5, SLIGHT RISK  
IN OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COUNTIES, WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5,  
MARGINAL RISK FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE REMAINING CWA  
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY, WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN THE  
AFTERNOON, AND PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROF NEAR OUR  
AREA. SOME ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE DAY, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A  
NOTCH COOLER, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FORECAST.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY PERIOD WITHIN OUR  
FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF  
THE UPPER TROF MONDAY. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT PERIOD, THURSDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS WARM AIR AT LOWER LEVELS BUILDS  
BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL  
CERTAINLY OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE  
WEEK, BUT LITTLE CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND  
HAVE MENTIONED IN A PROB30 WITH THIS UPDATE; THUNDER RISK IS  
LOW SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A STEADY SSE TO S BREEZE  
TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
FORECAST CRESTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR RIVER HAVE CONTINUED  
TREND A BIT LOWER INTO NEXT WEEK AFTER ASSESSING RECENT RUN-  
OFF AND A DRY FORECAST OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,  
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND  
MAGNITUDE OF THE FORECAST CRESTS. THE LATEST RIVER LEVEL  
FORECASTS ARE ONLY ACCOUNTING FOR FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AGAIN WHICH IS MAINLY DRY. WITH RUN-OFF  
UNCERTAINTY, FLOW ATTENUATION, AND THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH  
SATURDAY, WILL MAINTAIN THE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW FOR THE  
CEDAR RIVER AT CONESVILLE. HAVE CANCELED THE WATCH AT CEDAR  
RAPIDS AS THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO CREST A FOOT BELOW FLOOD  
STAGE.  
 
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MARENGO. THE CREST  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOWER AND THE TIMING OF INITIAL FLOOD  
CONDITIONS WERE SLOWED. HOWEVER, WITH FLOOD STAGE FORECAST IN  
NEXT 24 HRS OR SO, HAVE GONE WITH THE WARNING.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...UTTECH/ERVIN  
LONG TERM...ERVIN  
AVIATION...UTTECH  
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS/12  
 
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