565
FXUS63 KDVN 292331
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
WELL INTO THE 90S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
- A THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- THE PATTERN LOOKS LESS ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
A MCV ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS LED TO A REINVIGORATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE HELD A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA SO FAR
TODAY. OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT WITH
OCCASIONAL STRATIFORM RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV,
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER. EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 (WHERE IT HAS BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY), TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THIS REGION, POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL TRENDS IN THE
CAMS IS FOR A LOWER "SCATTERED" COVERAGE SCENARIO, FAVORING
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH,
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS STAYING
DRY. WITH THE DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED POPS
AGAIN, NOW RANGING BETWEEN 20-50%. SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO ONLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE WEAK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 900 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CLOUDS AROUND, BUT LOWER TO
MID 80S SEEM ON TARGET GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, AND VERY LITTLE
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST TWO- THIRDS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, YET TO FORM OVER NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT, EVOLVES THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY PERIOD WITHIN
OUR FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF MONDAY. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT PERIOD,
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS WARM AIR AT
LOWER LEVELS BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT LITTLE CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT.
THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THAT POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE VAGUE OUT THIS FAR AS
MODELS HAVE GREATLY VARIED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVOLVE REMAINS LOW, GIVEN DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE, SO WE CONTINUE TO USE PROB30 GROUPS FOR CID AND MLI
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR STORMS FOR DBQ,
GIVEN ONGOING SHOWER AND STORMS NORTH OF KMXO, SO USED TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA IMPACTS. LATE TONIGHT, FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW, CAPPED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT MVFR WITH LOW
CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) FOR IFR VISBYS PER THE NBM ENSEMBLE.
DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF STORMS RETURN FOR THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN/UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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