914
FXUS63 KDVN 300516
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS NOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE SCATTERED
STORMS POSSIBLE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING MONDAY.
- THE PATTERN LOOKS LESS ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
A MCV ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI HAS LED TO A REINVIGORATION
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE HELD A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA SO FAR
TODAY. OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT WITH
OCCASIONAL STRATIFORM RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV,
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDER. EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF
I-80 (WHERE IT HAS BEEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY), TO THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTH DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO
PEAK IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE RESIDES IN THIS REGION, POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE, BUT OVERALL TRENDS IN THE
CAMS IS FOR A LOWER "SCATTERED" COVERAGE SCENARIO, FAVORING
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH,
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST WITH MANY AREAS STAYING
DRY. WITH THE DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST HAVE DECREASED POPS
AGAIN, NOW RANGING BETWEEN 20-50%. SPC HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO ONLY THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE WEAK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 900 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CLOUDS AROUND, BUT LOWER TO
MID 80S SEEM ON TARGET GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, AND VERY LITTLE
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST TWO- THIRDS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW A COMPLEX OF
STORMS, YET TO FORM OVER NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT, EVOLVES THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO BE A DRY PERIOD WITHIN
OUR FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF MONDAY. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT PERIOD,
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS WARM AIR AT
LOWER LEVELS BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL CERTAINLY OFFER A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT LITTLE CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT.
THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT ONCE AGAIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THAT POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE VAGUE OUT THIS FAR AS
MODELS HAVE GREATLY VARIED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS HELPING KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER, SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
SUNRISE TIME PERIOD, AND ANY CLEAR AREAS MAY SEE SHALLOW DENSE
FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW, AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA ARE
FAVORED FOR THIS FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
THIS AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN/UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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