138
FXUS63 KDVN 301014
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY
EVENING.
- THE PATTERN LOOKS LESS ACTIVE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID, BUT WILL SEE GRADUAL DRY ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH THAT, HEAT STRESS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THEN RECENT DAYS. THE MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE WHETHER
STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR ISOLATED. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING COLD APPROACHING THE CWA WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THIS IS FAVORABLE TIMING, BUT WITH VERY
WEAK FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS, IT'S HARD TO FIND A STRONG FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE FRONT ITSELF IS QUITE DIFFUSE. WE ARE
PROBABLY BEST OFF LOOKING TO THE WEST THIS MORNING, TIMING THE STORM
MOVEMENT AND OUTFLOWS, AND USING THAT SHORT TERM FORECASTING TO
DETERMINE STORM PLACEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS YOU CAN IMAGINE IN SUCH
A CHAOTIC WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT, MODELS ARE INCREDIBLY DIVERSE ON
OUTCOMES TODAY. THE 00Z NAM/NAMNEST MOVE A STRONG CLUSTER THROUGH
THE I-80 CORRIDOR TODAY, WHILE THE HRRR IS CONSISTENTLY SOUTH AND
MAINLY DRY, NSSL-WRF WIDESPREAD, AND OF COURSE THE GFS/EC REMAIN
UNFOCUSED AND NON CONVECTIVE. THOUGH STORMS COULD BE STRONG DUE TO
FAVORABLE AFTERNOON CAPE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES, I'M
INCLINED TO HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE RANGE TODAY, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES (30-50%). THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER POPS OF THE DAY
TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST 1/2 OF THE CWA,
WHICH IS GENERALLY WHERE SPC IS SHOWING A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS. BY EARLY EVENING, ANY STORMS REMAINING SHOULD
BE QUICKLY EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
TODAY'S HIGHS WITH CLOUD COVER ISSUES AT TIMES, ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, WITH DEW POINT VALUES FALLING FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO MID 60S BY EVENING.
TONIGHT, A PLEASANT EVENING IS IN STORE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO FALL, AND TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY
SETTLE BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY, A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS FORECAST, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
HIGHS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND MODERATE HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THURSDAY, JULY 4TH/FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AHEAD CONTINUE TO LOOK
WARM, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE HEAT COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR
HIGH DEW POINT AIR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SEEM ON TRACK, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LIGHT WINDS THIN SPOTS IN THE HIGH CIRRUS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, THIS MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT BRL AND DBQ AND POSSIBLY CID AND MLI. BY 13Z THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE IMPROVED GREATLY, AS DAYLIGHT AND WEST /
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A SHORT PERIOD BETWEEN 20-00Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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