096
FXUS63 KDVN 301946
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WELL SOUTH OF I-80.
- THE PATTERN LOOKS LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BEFORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD A SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN
ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST.
MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (~20-40%, HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH). SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS,
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IF WE DO GET A FEW STRONGER
CELLS TO FORM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTIONS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, EXPECT COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FOR EARLY JULY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE LATEST NBM HAS LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 WITH OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET AND AREA OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THIS TIME WITH SOME MODELS STILL SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THURSDAY, JULY 4TH/FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AHEAD CONTINUE TO LOOK
WARM, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE HEAT COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT THE SIGNAL FOR
HIGH DEW POINT AIR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THIS POINT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SEEM ON TRACK, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, HAVE MAINTAINED A SHORT
TEMPO MENTION OF -TSRA AT MLI AND BRL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. AS
CONDITIONS EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
OR DROPPED. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
(UNDER 10KT) AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
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