051
FXUS63 KDVN 011844
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
144 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE FOURTH OF
JULY.
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE I-380
CORRIDOR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND LASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-60%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH A MEDIUM
(40-60%) CHANCE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITHIN A
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMPARATIVELY
LOWER HUMIDITY IS TO BE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS, NO WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT ALLOW FOR A COOL AND CALM MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. MID
60S START THE DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IN THE COMING DAYS. UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY ARE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS AND A SIGNAL FOR A HOT HOLIDAY
TO COME. OTHER THAN THE INCREASING HEAT, THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET
WITH ONLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS NEAR THE I-380 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES BECOME A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER BY THURSDAY MORNING REACHING THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SEEING THE RETURN OF 90 DEGREE HEAT FOR SOME. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THREAT REMAINS LOW (10-20%) FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, THE HOT TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
PEAK FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY. LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY MAY BE OPPRESSIVE FOR THOSE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT OR SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OUTDOORS.
WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS ARE UNLIKELY, HEAT PRECAUTIONS ARE
ADVISED. FIREWORKS AND OTHER EVENING ACTIVITIES LIKELY AVOID ANY OF
NATURE'S FIREWORKS. ONLY A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR FAR WESTERN AREAS.
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS. THIS CHANGE IS DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT PUSHES EAST OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY AND UPPER 80S BY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON SATURDAY. A MEDIUM (40-
60%) CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE A WELCOMED SIGHT, GIVEN THE RAINFALL
DEFICITS FOR MANY. THAT BEING SAID, THE THREAT OF SUMMER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MORE DETAILS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING AT LEAST A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST DAYS. TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...NWS
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