301
FXUS63 KDVN 020831
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH A BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER OUR NORTH, RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOW-END
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH WINDS AND HAIL BEING
THE MAIN HAZARD.
- ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH
THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN, WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- FOURTH OF JULY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE TOASTY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, LOW MOISTURE CONTENT
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. THUS, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT.
THE ENERGY FROM THIS WAVE DISSIPATES OVERHEAD TODAY, WITH A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER OUR NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
OVER OUR NORTH, WHICH MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW, AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO GO BACK AND FORTH ON STORM CHANCES TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH,
IF THE BOUNDARY DOES STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA, AS SOME CAMS INDICATE,
THEN I WOULDN'T DISCOUNT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1/5, FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, LARGELY
FOCUSING ON TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HINTS AT UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY, WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PRESENT HELPING TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING CAN BE FOUND. AS WAS
MENTIONED ABOVE, OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH
SPATIAL COVERAGE AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THUS, WILL
GENERALLY HOLD ONTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE'S POPS, AS
THEY STILL CAPTURE THE POTENTIAL WELL, WITH ABOUT 15-30% POPS IN
OUR NORTH. MAIN HAZARDS WITH STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED, ALLOWING A
WEAK WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. LLVL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWESTERLY, FEEDING MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. THUS, IF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED ON THURSDAY,
WE MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL LAPSE RATES BEING BETWEEN 9.0-9.5 C/KM.
SOME CAMS HINT AT THIS, BUT IS NOT CAPTURED WELL THROUGHOUT.
THUS, IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT MOST SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
THURSDAY, AS COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LOW.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING, WITH
CAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500+. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANY STORM TO GO UP
RATHER QUICKLY, DEVELOPING A QUICK/ROBUST UPDRAFT, WITH LLVL DRY
AIR FAVORING EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. THE SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PART OF OUR NORTH IN A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1
OF 5, FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY, HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE WINDS
AS THE MAIN HAZARD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
THE 4TH OF JULY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARM ONE, WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
KICK IN. TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 90S THROUGHOUT AND DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE LOW 70S. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT INDICES UPWARDS TO 100 FOR SOME. WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY
AND PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED, IT WILL BE BEST TO PREPARE
FOR THE HEAT IN ADVANCE, AS WELL AS PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY, WITH
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL FAVOR NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR STORMS. SATURDAY CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS (40-70% CHANCE), AS IT FEATURES THE
DEEPEST WAVE IN THE PERIOD, PASSING THROUGH DURING THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY. TOO SOON TO DISCUSS ANY SEVERE THREAT, BUT IT
IS BEST TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE NOW IN JULY AND WITH SUCH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION. BEYOND SATURDAY, THE NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH NOCTURNAL MCSS
NOT OUT OF QUESTION. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH, WITH LOW 90S REMAINING THROUGHOUT, THEN MID-UPPER 80S
REMAINING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START THE DAY, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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