977
FXUS63 KDVN 031714
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-END CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. IF WE GET STORMS TO
DEVELOP, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SEVERE WINDS.
- FOURTH OF JULY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE TOASTY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
KICKS IN, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THUS, VERY
WARM CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL GUIDE A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. LLVL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY, FEEDING MORE
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. THUS, IF CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TODAY, WE MAY SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL LAPSE RATES BEING BETWEEN 9.0-9.5 C/KM. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, THIS IS NOT CAPTURED
WELL AMONGST GUIDANCE. THUS, IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO SAY THAT MOST
SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY, AS COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE LOW. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING, WITH
CAPE BETWEEN 2500-3500+. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANY STORM TO GO UP RATHER
QUICKLY, DEVELOPING A QUICK/ROBUST UPDRAFT, WITH LLVL DRY AIR
FAVORING EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED. THUS, THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, BUT CANNOT BE RULED. THE SPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN A MARGINAL RISK,
LEVEL 1 OF 5, FOR SEVERE WEATHER, HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE WINDS AS THE
MAIN HAZARD AND HAIL SECONDARY.
THE 4TH OF JULY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WARM ONE, WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
KICK IN. TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO
THE LOW 70S THROUGHOUT. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT INDICES UPWARDS TO 100 FOR SOME. WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY AND
PLENTY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED, IT WILL BE BEST TO PREPARE FOR
THE HEAT IN ADVANCE, AS WELL AS PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY DURING THE DAY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE HOLIDAY, WITH A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL FAVOR NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR STORMS. SATURDAY CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, AS IT FEATURES THE DEEPEST WAVE IN THE
PERIOD, PASSING THROUGH DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. TOO SOON
TO DISCUSS ANY SEVERE THREAT, BUT IT IS BEST TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE
ARE NOW IN JULY AND WITH SUCH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. BEYOND SATURDAY, THE
NEAR-DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS
BOUTS OF ENERGY PASS THROUGH. SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THIS STRETCH, WITH LOW 90S REMAINING THROUGHOUT, WITH MID-UPPER 80S
REMAINING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. A LOW (<30%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (21Z-02Z) EXISTS. IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE
IOWA I-80 CORRIDOR, AND REMAIN LARGELY ISOLATED. TAF IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...NWS
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