814
FXUS63 KDVN 121050
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
550 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA - GOOD TIMING
FOR RECOVERING FROM THE SEVERE STORMS AND MAJOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-30%) OF A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAJOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SKIMMING THE AREA TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (10-30%). INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE 12.00Z HREF ENSEMBLE 1-HR
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER INDICATES LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THANKS TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE CORN BELT REGION, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SUNDAY. OTHER THAN SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS, QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL CONTAIN PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR MID-WEEK (GOING AS HIGH AS 40-60% FOR
WEDNESDAY). OVERALL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
THE NORM, DEPICTED WELL IN THE 12.00Z LREF 500 MB HEIGHT CLUSTER
ANALYSIS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY OVERALL FOR US, BUT A FEW MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MORE ACTIVE
CONDITIONS STARTING TUESDAY. ONE KEY FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES, GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT PER THE VARIOUS ML GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH
THESE OUTPUTS ARE FAIRLY MUTED. THE ACTIVE PERIOD COULD VERY WELL
CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REGION, WHICH COULD ACT TO
STALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CORN BELT REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY, GRADUALLY COOLING OFF AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WIDE-RANGING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
LOW-CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME
ISOLATED VFR POCKETS. OVERALL, WE EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE NORM TODAY INTO THE
EVENING, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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