644
FXUS63 KDVN 122329
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, SAVE FOR SOME
UPPER-LEVEL SMOKE.
- <20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME
SMOKE HAS SUBSIDED TO THE SURFACE BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
LEADING TO SOME HAZE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE TOMORROW
(<15% CHANCE) AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDIRECT
NEAR-SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, BRINGING
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT SOUNDING PROFILES WERE TOO DRY TO PROMPT THE ADDITION OF
POPS. A DIVING WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REINFORCE A
COOLER AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE KEEPS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO PUT THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND OPEN US UP TO A SERIES
OF WAVES FROM CANADA. THE LLJ WILL ALSO REEMERGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER ON MONDAY. IT WILL INTERSECT WITH A SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT MINNESOTA, LATER DRAGGING ITS COLD
FRONT (AND THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS) ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHERN IOWA, HENCE THE BROAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GROUND COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNRISE SUNDAY. IT IS NOT CLEAR YET IF ANY OF THE TAF SITES
COULD BE IMPACTED. THE OVERALL PROBABILITY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT A TAF SITE.
AFTER 12Z/13 WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
HAS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A POSSIBLE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WHAT IS NEW...
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE SKUNK RIVER AT SIGOURNEY AND THE ENGLISH
RIVER AT KALONA HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO FLOOD WARNINGS. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT ANAMOSA.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS, AD FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4+ INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES FALLING IN THE QUAD CITIES AND NORTHWEST OF DUBUQUE.
THIS IS BROUGHT 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO 5
TO 9 INCHES. THESE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE LOCATED ON PORTIONS OF
THE MAQUOKETA, WAPSIPINICON, NORTH SKUNK, ENGLISH, IOWA, AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA MANY RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WITHIN BANK-FULL.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO
AS WELL AS A FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT DEWITT
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GLADSTONE AND BURLINGTON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page