457
FXUS63 KDVN 130543
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, SAVE FOR SOME
UPPER-LEVEL SMOKE.
- <20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME
SMOKE HAS SUBSIDED TO THE SURFACE BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
LEADING TO SOME HAZE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE SMOKE TOMORROW
(<15% CHANCE) AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDIRECT
NEAR-SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. A
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA, BRINGING
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT SOUNDING PROFILES WERE TOO DRY TO PROMPT THE ADDITION OF
POPS. A DIVING WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REINFORCE A
COOLER AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE KEEPS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT IT
WILL ALSO PUT THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND OPEN US UP TO A SERIES
OF WAVES FROM CANADA. THE LLJ WILL ALSO RE-EMERGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER ON MONDAY. IT WILL INTERSECT WITH A SYSTEM
THAT IS FORECASTED TO IMPACT MINNESOTA, LATER DRAGGING ITS COLD
FRONT (AND THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS) ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHERN IOWA, HENCE THE BROAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SCT TO BKN HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ONGOING AT TIME OF TAF
ISSUANCE. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE AT CID AND DBQ LATER
TONIGHT AS SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE PRETTY SPREAD
OUT ON HOW LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE, WITH SOME GOING AS
LOW AS IFR (BELOW 2SM). HOWEVER, BOTH THE HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR
REDUCTIONS, SO LEANED TOWARD MVFR FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
WHAT IS NEW...
FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE SKUNK RIVER AT SIGOURNEY AND THE ENGLISH
RIVER AT KALONA HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO FLOOD WARNINGS. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT ANAMOSA.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS, AD FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4+ INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES FALLING IN THE QUAD CITIES AND NORTHWEST OF DUBUQUE.
THIS IS BROUGHT 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO 5
TO 9 INCHES. THESE HEAVIEST RAINS WERE LOCATED ON PORTIONS OF
THE MAQUOKETA, WAPSIPINICON, NORTH SKUNK, ENGLISH, IOWA, AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MANY AREA RIVERS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA MANY RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO STAY WITHIN BANK-FULL.
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO
AS WELL AS A FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT DEWITT
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GLADSTONE AND BURLINGTON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DMX
LONG TERM...DMX
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS
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