684
FXUS63 KDVN 140537
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS WEEKEND, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TURNING MORE
SEASONAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
- THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES (40 - 60%) WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
- FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SOME AREA
RIVERS. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
TRENDS WITH THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR FOG HAVE INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE 21Z/13 RUN COMPARED TO THE 15Z/13 RUN.
VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS WELL. THE AREA FAVORED LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 AND EAST OF U.S. 218.
DATA SO FAR SUGGESTS TWO SCENARIOS; (1) A MIX OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING INTO THE
GENERAL 0.5-1 MILE RANGE WITH SOME POCKETS OF VISIBILITIES UNDER
0.25 MILES, OR (2) THE LOW STATUS FAILS TO DEVELOP AND A
THICKER FOG DEVELOPS INITIALLY OVER THE WEST GROUND IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN SPREADS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
SUNRISE. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS THEN FOG HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
RIGHT NOW ON AN OVERALL PROBABILITY ASPECT, ITS 50/50 FOR EITHER
SCENARIO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
AT 1 PM, A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO MAINLY HANCOCK, MCDONOUGH AND WARREN COUNTIES. 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
00 UTC MONDAY BEFORE CHANCES QUICKLY COME TO EN END FROM WEST TO
EAST.
THIS TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TOT HE EAST THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 62 TO 66 DEGREES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL BE QUIET BUT NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S. HEAT
INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
THE WORK WEEK FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR MID-WEEK (CHANCES AS HIGH AS 40-60% FOR
WEDNESDAY PM). OVERALL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW WILL
BE THE NORM, DEPICTED WELL IN THE 13.00Z AND 13.12Z LREF 500 MB
HEIGHT CLUSTER ANALYSIS. A FEW MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS
STARTING TUESDAY. ONE KEY FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT PROGRESSES, GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR STRONGER CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE BOUNDARY PER THE VARIOUS ML GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH THESE OUTPUTS ARE FAIRLY MUTED. THE ACTIVE PERIOD COULD
VERY WELL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REGION, WHICH
COULD ACT TO STALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CORN BELT
REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY, GRADUALLY COOLING OFF AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT UNDER AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR FOG
CONTINUES TO INCREASE, SO DECIDED TO INCLUDE THEM FOR ALL LOCAL
TAFS. THE QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW LOW WILL THE VISIBILITIES
FALL OVERNIGHT AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THEY FALL. AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE, THERE ARE ALREADY SOME LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR/IFR, SO
THINGS MAY BE DETERIORATING QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. LIFR
CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY FOR MLI AND BRL, SO
HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THESE
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME PREVAILING. FOG/LOW STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WHAT IS NEW WITH THIS ISSUANCE? THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE
ENGLISH RIVER AT KALONA WAS CANCELED WITH THE RIVER FALLING
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT
ANAMOSA WAS CANCELED AS THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. THE FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
GLADSTONE AND BURLINGTON HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. THE
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE SKUNK RIVER AT SIGOURNEY AND THE IOWA AT
MARENGO REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT THE
SKUNK RIVER AT SIGOURNEY WILL MAKE IT TO FLOOD STAGE WITH THE
RIVER LEVEL REMAINING STEADY SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THE FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT DEWITT.
RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN
BANK RISES WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS BEFORE FALLING IN THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...08
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS
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