943
FXUS63 KDVN 160507
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1207 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A LOW RISK FOR TORNADOES ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- HOT WEATHER WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100
DEGREES AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS HAS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS OF 1 PM, WE'RE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, AND SEEM ON TARGET FOR THE UPPER 80S IN MOST
SPOTS. THIS IS GOOD, SINCE THE DEW POINT OF 70 TO 75 IS QUITE MUGGY
OUTSIDE, AND HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE 90 TO 95 VS SOMETHING NEAR 100
IF THE CUMULUS HAD NOT BEEN SO WIDESPREAD.
LOOKING THROUGH OUR REGION, WE'RE IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MOMENT OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. TO OUR NORTHWEST, A COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT, AND COOL, SMOKEY AIR BEHIND
IT AS WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, RESULTING IN
A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH WARM ADVECTION, LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED, WITH FOG LIMITED BY SOUTH WINDS OF 5-
10 MPH. BY MORNING, A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SEEN IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE FROM A
DECAYING AREA OF STORMS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER TONIGHT. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING
OR DECAYED ON ARRIVAL, THEY MAY PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUR AREA TOMORROW.
AN MCV, OR MESOCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HIGH
PWAT AIR MASS OVER MIDWEST FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS OUT WEST. IF THAT
FORMS, WE WILL SEE ENHANCED FORCING FOR STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. THAT TRIGGER IS UNCERTAIN. THAT TRIGGER IS
ALSO THE MAIN SOURCE FOR LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER OUR AREA. IF THAT DOES
NOT FORM, THEN THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE WEAK FOR IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
WHAT IS NOT UNCERTAIN TOMORROW IS INSTABILITY! A HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE, AND WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGH CAPE,
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS IS STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNCERTAIN TRIGGER AND HIGH INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS FITS THE SPC FORECAST OF LEVEL 1-2, WITH LOW PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEST TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER EAST. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE BY FAR THE MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW, WITH BOTH DISCREET
AND ANY LINE ORGANIZATION, BUT SHOULD THE MCV BRING SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO OUR AREA TOMORROW, TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6-7 DEG/KM, THESE WOULD TEND TO BE WEAK TORNADOES.
PWATS (ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT), AROUND 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, AND A QUICK
1 INCH OF RAIN AS STORMS PASS BY, BUT LITTLE IF ANY REPEATING STORMS
IS EXPECTED, AND THIS PROGRESSIVE NATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY MID EVENING TOMORROW, THESE PROGRESSIVE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, WITH ANY LINGERING OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH COULD CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
COOLER NORTHWEST THAN TODAY, AND JUST AS WARM IF NOT WARMER
SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT GIVEN THE MARGINAL HEAT AND MESSAGING ON
STORMS, WE'RE OPTING TO KEEP THIS MESSAGE SECONDARY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
THURSDAY, MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE! HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH. WHILE I HAVE NOT INCLUDED
SMOKE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, WE'LL HAVE WATCH HOW THE
EVOLVES IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS THERE'S PLENTY OF SMOKE
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE EVERY
36-48 HRS. NOT EVERY DAY WILL SEE RAINFALL, BUT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BRING A CONTINUED RISK FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE (40-55%) OF STORMS APPEARS TO OCCUR THIS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
PWAT AND FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MCS/REPEATING STORMS.
TUESDAY ONWARD...SOME LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST CPC
8-14 HAZARDS OUTLOOK SHOWS A BUILDING STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHING THE STORM TRACK
FURTHER NORTH, BUT UNFORTUNATELY BRINGING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION. EXTREME HEAT MAY BE A GROWING CONCERN AS WE ENTER
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD. A WING OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL IA AHEAD OF ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST OVER WESTERN IA.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT CID
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, AN MCV AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS/CIGS.
LOCATION AND TIMING TOO HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS JUNCTURE AND
HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 WORDING FOR NOW. GREATEST RISK AREA
APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF MS RVR. SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OVER 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FROPA LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY AT
CID/DBQ AND HAVE TRENDED THE TAFS THAT DIRECTION AT THE END OF
THIS CYCLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
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