799
FXUS63 KDVN 051639
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY, WITH SMOKE LARGELY OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER DAYS OF IT OVERHEAD AND AT THE SURFACE.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S.
- WE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,
LEAVING US IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY. WEAK FLOW REMAINS THE STORY THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH
BOUTS OF ENERGY CONTINUING TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL,
MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING, WHICH WILL LIMIT MUCH OF ANY WEATHER,
ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT DAY. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE WILL BE A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY IN PARTS OF ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH, GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
LOW MOISTURE, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF ILLINOIS AGAIN. WITH THE
PATTERN REMAINING LARGELY THE SAME AND NO BIG CHANGES IN
AIRMASSES, WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TODAY AS WE HAVE SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW 80S,
WITH LOW HUMIDITY. A LIGHT BREEZE WILL ALSO BE SEEN, WITH
LITTLE/NO SMOKE EXPECTED EITHER. THUS, WE ARE IN FOR QUITE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY.
FROM THERE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS AGAIN
TONIGHT WHEN THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE'S ENERGY PASSES THROUGH.
THUS, PASSING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S CAN BE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE, WITH
STRONGER FLOW MOVING IN, ALLOWING FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PASS
THROUGH. WHILE THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA, MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN WESTERN IA. THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK, THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STORM TRACKS TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA AS WELL, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVING IN.
ALTHOUGH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WE WILL
START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THUS, WE
ARE EXPECTING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WE WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE
DUE TO STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WORKING IN. GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE 90S WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, BUT DISAGREEMENT
COMES WITH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE 90S. THE EURO REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE HEAT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 90S,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS LOW, BUT OUR
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN UPPER 80S TO 90 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95-100, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BRINGING A BREAK FROM
THE HEAT, ALONG WITH OUR BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THIS IS WAY OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, LONG TERM GUIDANCE AND
THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES FAVOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK, INTRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THUS, THIS QUIET WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LOOKS TO BE COMING TO A CLOSE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 3-5KFT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE SITES HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT) OF A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER THEY MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE SITES.
AN AREA OF SMOKE WILL SHIFT WEST AGAIN TOWARDS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY REDUCED VIS ARE AT DBQ AND HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF TEMPO GROUP. SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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